Increasing risk behaviour can outweigh the benefits of antiretroviral drug treatment on the HIV incidence among men-having-sex-with-men in Amsterdam.
Increasing risk behaviour can outweigh the benefits of antiretroviral drug treatment on the HIV incidence among men-having-sex-with-men in Amsterdam.
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在阿姆斯特丹的男男性行为者中，危险行为的增加可能超过抗逆转录病毒药物治疗对艾滋病毒发病率的益处
DOI：
10.1186/1471-2334-11-118
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发表时间：
2011-05-11
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Sloot PM
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mei S;Quax R;van de Vijver D;Zhu Y;Sloot PM
研究背景男男性行为者（MSM）之间的接触传播是工业化国家艾滋病流行的主要原因之一。在荷兰首都阿姆斯特丹，MSM风险群体已经被追踪了几十年。这促使了一些研究，从统计学、心理学和社会学的角度提供了关于男男性接触者危险行为的详细信息。尽管有效的抗逆转录病毒疗法的时代，艾滋病毒的发病率在男男性行为者增加。在长期的矛盾影响的风险行为和有效的治疗仍然知之甚少。MethodsUsing以前提出的复杂Agent网络模型，我们描述了稳定和休闲的伙伴关系，以预测艾滋病毒在男男性接触者之间的传播。行为相关的参数和值，从阿姆斯特丹MSM的研究推断，被送入模型，我们使用历史的年度发病率数据验证模型。随后，我们研究的方案，以评估风险行为和有效治疗的矛盾影响，通过改变相应的参数值。最后，我们进行定量分析的基础上产生的发病率data.ResultsThe模拟发病率再现ACS的历史发病率，以及有助于预测艾滋病毒在阿姆斯特丹的男男性接触者之间的流行。我们的研究结果表明，从长远来看，有效的治疗的积极影响，可以被超过的风险行为增加至少30%的男男性接触者。ConclusionWe建议，基于模型预测，降低风险行为是突出的控制机制，艾滋病毒的发病率，即使在有效的治疗的存在。
BackgroundThe transmission through contacts among MSM (men who have sex with men) is one of the dominating contributors to HIV prevalence in industrialized countries. In Amsterdam, the capital of the Netherlands, the MSM risk group has been traced for decades. This has motivated studies which provide detailed information about MSM's risk behavior statistically, psychologically and sociologically. Despite the era of potent antiretroviral therapy, the incidence of HIV among MSM increases. In the long term the contradictory effects of risk behavior and effective therapy are still poorly understood.MethodsUsing a previously presented Complex Agent Network model, we describe steady and casual partnerships to predict the HIV spreading among MSM. Behavior-related parameters and values, inferred from studies on Amsterdam MSM, are fed into the model; we validate the model using historical yearly incidence data. Subsequently, we study scenarios to assess the contradictory effects of risk behavior and effective therapy, by varying corresponding values of parameters. Finally, we conduct quantitative analysis based on the resulting incidence data.ResultsThe simulated incidence reproduces the ACS historical incidence well and helps to predict the HIV epidemic among MSM in Amsterdam. Our results show that in the long run the positive influence of effective therapy can be outweighed by an increase in risk behavior of at least 30% for MSM.ConclusionWe recommend, based on the model predictions, that lowering risk behavior is the prominent control mechanism of HIV incidence even in the presence of effective therapy.
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影响因子：
5
作者：
Leynaert, B;Downs, AM;de Vincenzi, I
通讯作者：
de Vincenzi, I
DOI：
10.1097/01.qai.0000151079.33935.79
发表时间：
2005-08-01
影响因子：
3.6
作者：
Marks, G;Crepaz, N;Janssen, RS
通讯作者：
Janssen, RS
影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Davidovich, U;de Wit, J;Coutinho, R
通讯作者：
Coutinho, R
影响因子：
1.1
作者：
BENDER, EA;CANFIELD, ER
通讯作者：
CANFIELD, ER
DOI：
10.1097/00042560-199909010-00008
发表时间：
1999-09-01
期刊：
JOURNAL OF ACQUIRED IMMUNE DEFICIENCY SYNDROMES
影响因子：
--
作者：
Dorrucci, M;Balducci, M;Rezza, G
通讯作者：
Rezza, G