Determining Hydrological Variability Using a Multi-Catchment Model Approach for the Western Cape, South Africa
Determining Hydrological Variability Using a Multi-Catchment Model Approach for the Western Cape, South Africa
复制标题
使用多流域模型方法确定南非西开普省的水文变化
DOI：
10.3390/su132414058
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
J. Helmschrot
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
A. Watson;G. Midgley;A. Künne;S. Kralisch;J. Helmschrot
要了解气候变化的影响，就需要开发水文模型工具。然而，数据稀缺阻碍了模型的应用、性能、过程模拟和不确定性，尤其是对撒哈拉以南非洲地区。在这项研究中，利用JAMS/J2000降雨-径流模型和蒙特卡罗分析(MCA)，采用多流域方法评估了南非西开普省(WC)的水文过程变异性。由于更陡峭的坡度和更低的蒸散量，模型表明WC主要由山区地表径流和区域地下水流量主导。结果突出了流域大小、水文气候和人为因素的可用性和位置以及信噪比(水量平衡)的频率的影响。对于大流域(>；5000平方公里)，校准能够达到0.61至0.88的纳什-萨特克利夫效率(NSE)。对于小流域(<；2000 km2)，NSE在0.23到0.39之间。大流域对地表径流、内流和基流的总贡献率分别为44%、19%和37%，总体不确定性较低。模拟的小流域水流成分多种多样，这些结果不太确定。多集水方法的使用可以确定影响参数敏感性的具体因素，进而提供了改进水文过程模拟的手段。
Understanding the impacts of climate change requires the development of hydrological modelling tools. However, data scarcity hinders model application, performance, process simulation and uncertainty, especially for Sub-Saharan Africa. In this study, a multi-catchment approach was used to assess hydrological process variability in the Western Cape (WC) of South Africa using the JAMS/J2000 rainfall–runoff model and a Monte Carlo analysis (MCA). Due to much steeper slopes and lower evapotranspiration, the models suggest that WC is dominated by surface runoff from mountainous regions and regional groundwater flow. The results highlight the impact of the catchment size, availability and position of hydroclimatic and anthropogenic factors and the frequency of the signal-to-noise ratio (water balance). For large catchments (>5000 km2), the calibration was able to achieve a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.61 to 0.88. For small catchments (<2000 km2), NSE was between 0.23 to 0.39. The large catchments had an overall surface runoff, interflow and baseflow contribution of 44, 19 and 37%, respectively, and lower overall uncertainty. The simulated flow components for the small catchments were variable and these results are less certain. The use of a multi-catchment approach allows for identifying the specific factors impacting parameter sensitivities and in turn provides a means to improve hydrological process simulation.
影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Arnell, Nigel W.;Gosling, Simon N.
通讯作者：
Gosling, Simon N.