Phenological shifts and the fate of mutualisms.
Phenological shifts and the fate of mutualisms.
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DOI：
10.1111/oik.01523
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发表时间：
2015-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Bronstein JL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rafferty NE;CaraDonna PJ;Bronstein JL
气候变化正在改变许多物种的生活史事件的发生时间，其中许多物种都参与互惠互利的相互作用。由于许多互利共生只有在伴侣物种能够及时找到彼此的情况下才能形成，因此不同的物候变化可能会影响其强度、持续时间和结果。在极端情况下，气候变化驱动的物候变化可能会导致物候不匹配：互惠物种的时间重叠部分或完全丧失。我们越来越了解物候变化如何、何时以及为何会改变一种互利共生——授粉。然而，正如我们在这里所展示的，人们对其他类型的互利共生却出人意料地缺乏关注。我们对可能导致物候不匹配的共生现象的特征进行了一系列预测。我们关注的不是这种不匹配的后果，而是不匹配发生的可能性。我们探讨了互利共生的三个关键特征的影响：1）亲密性，2）季节性和持续时间，3）义务性和特异性。我们预测，互利共生的以下特征可能会增加物候不匹配的可能性：1）不存在共传播的非共生生活史； 2）短暂的、季节性的互动； 3）兼性的、广义的相互作用。然后，我们根据我们的先验预测回顾了有限的可用数据，并指出互利共生或多或少有可能出现物候不匹配的风险，强调需要对植物与传粉者相互作用以外的互利共生进行研究。未来的研究应明确关注互利共生特征，以确定物候变化是否以及如何影响互利共生相互作用。
Climate change is altering the timing of life history events in a wide array of species, many of which are involved in mutualistic interactions. Because many mutualisms can form only if partner species are able to locate each other in time, differential phenological shifts are likely to influence their strength, duration and outcome. At the extreme, climate change-driven shifts in phenology may result in phenological mismatch: the partial or complete loss of temporal overlap of mutualistic species. We have a growing understanding of how, when, and why phenological change can alter one type of mutualism–pollination. However, as we show here, there has been a surprising lack of attention to other types of mutualism. We generate a set of predictions about the characteristics that may predispose mutualisms in general to phenological mismatches. We focus not on the consequences of such mismatches but rather on the likelihood that mismatches will develop. We explore the influence of three key characteristics of mutualism: 1) intimacy, 2) seasonality and duration, and 3) obligacy and specificity. We predict that the following characteristics of mutualism may increase the likelihood of phenological mismatch: 1) a non-symbiotic life history in which co-dispersal is absent; 2) brief, seasonal interactions; and 3) facultative, generalized interactions. We then review the limited available data in light of our a priori predictions and point to mutualisms that are more and less likely to be at risk of becoming phenologically mismatched, emphasizing the need for research on mutualisms other than plant–pollinator interactions. Future studies should explicitly focus on mutualism characteristics to determine whether and how changing phenologies will affect mutualistic interactions.
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