High uncertainty over the future of tidal marsh birds under current sea-level rise projections
High uncertainty over the future of tidal marsh birds under current sea-level rise projections
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根据当前海平面上升预测，潮汐沼泽鸟类的未来存在高度不确定性
DOI：
10.1007/s10531-020-02098-z
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Wiest, Whitney A.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Klingbeil, Brian T.;Cohen, Jonathan B.;Correll, Maureen D.;Field, Christopher R.;Hodgman, Thomas P.;Kovach, Adrienne I.;Lentz, Erika E.;Olsen, Brian J.;Shriver, W. Gregory;Wiest, Whitney A.
海平面上升（SLR）预计将急剧增加，对潮汐沼泽产生深远的影响，但源于潜在气候变化情景、模式规格和时间尺度的不确定性是保护规划的主要障碍。我们比较了美国东北部在静态淹没和动态响应模型预测下2030年和2050年SLR的可能影响，与全球平均水平相比，美国东北部潮汐沼泽的SLR率较高。SLR的静态淹没和动态响应模型的不同之处在于它们如何纳入与当地过程和生物物理反馈相关的不确定性，它们历来被应用于不同的尺度，并且通常在沼泽脆弱性的时空预测方面存在差异。我们使用五种受保护的潮汐沼泽鸟类的种群估计来预测每个单反模型的种群变化模式，并研究了不确定性如何影响这些物种的规划决策。静态淹没模型和动态响应模型对2030年的预测明显不同，但这两种模型都相当确定地预测，到2050年，美国东北部只有10-15%的潮汐沼泽可能会保留下来（IPCC定义的概率为66%）。大多数（85-90%）的沼泽被预测有可能消失（33-66%的可能性），这意味着目前五种鸟类中有四种的栖息地极有可能失去85%。我们提出了一种规划方法，利用IPCC制定的指南对SLR导致的沼泽损失相关的不确定性进行分类，并将其应用于重点保护地点的优先排序。
Sea-level rise (SLR) is projected to increase dramatically with profound effects on tidal marshes, yet uncertainty stemming from underlying climate change scenarios, model specifications, and temporal scale is a major hurdle to conservation planning. We compared likely effects of SLR for 2030 and 2050 under static inundation and dynamic response model predictions for the northeastern USA, where tidal marshes experience elevated rates of SLR compared to global averages. Static inundation and dynamic response models of SLR, which differ in how they incorporate uncertainty associated with local processes and biophysical feedbacks, have historically been applied at different scales, and generally differ in spatial and temporal predictions of marsh vulnerability. We used population estimates for five tidal marsh bird species of conservation concern to predict patterns of population change for each SLR model and examined how uncertainty affects planning decisions for these species. Static inundation and dynamic response models differed markedly in their predictions for 2030, yet both models predicted with reasonable certainty that only 10–15% of tidal marsh in northeastern USA is likely (> 66% chance; as defined by the IPCC) to remain by 2050. Most (85–90%) of the marsh is predicted to be as likely as not (33–66% chance) to disappear, representing high potential for the loss of habitat for > 85% of current populations of four of the five bird species. We propose a planning approach using guidelines established by the IPCC to categorize uncertainty associated with marsh loss due to SLR and apply it to prioritize key sites for preservation.
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使用贝叶斯网络估计潮汐沼泽鸟类密度
DOI：
10.1002/jwmg.21567
发表时间：
2018
期刊：
The Journal of Wildlife Management
影响因子：
--
作者：
Whitney A. Wiest;M. Correll;B. Marcot;Brian J. Olsen;C. Elphick;T. Hodgman;G. Guntenspergen;W. G. Shriver
通讯作者：
W. G. Shriver
根据基于设计的调查对美国东北部高度保护关注的潮汐沼泽鸟类的数量进行估计
DOI：
10.1650/condor-15-30.1
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
Open-File Report
影响因子：
--
作者：
Whitney A. Wiest;M. Correll;Brian J. Olsen;C. Elphick;T. Hodgman;David R. Curson;W. G. Shriver
通讯作者：
W. G. Shriver
章。
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
W. Sweet;R. Horton;Robert E Kopp;A. Legrande;A. Romanou
通讯作者：
A. Romanou
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Smith JA
通讯作者：
Smith JA
影响因子：
6.3
作者：
Leanna D. Warman;A. Sinclair;G. Scudder;B. Klinkenberg;R. Pressey
通讯作者：
Leanna D. Warman;A. Sinclair;G. Scudder;B. Klinkenberg;R. Pressey