Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the moving epidemic method.
Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the moving epidemic method.
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DOI：
10.1111/j.1750-2659.2012.00422.x
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发表时间：
2013-07
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Nunes B
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Vega T;Lozano JE;Meerhoff T;Snacken R;Mott J;Ortiz de Lejarazu R;Nunes B
请引用这篇论文为：Vega等人。(2012)欧洲的流感监测：用移动流行方法确定流行阈值。流感和其他呼吸道病毒7(4)、546-558背景 及时监测流感对监测流感流行具有重要意义。目的(1)计算19个国家流感样疾病和急性呼吸道感染的流行阈值，以及不同强度的阈值。(2)评估这些门槛的表现。方法采用移动流行法( )确定流感活动基线和流行阈值。计算了疫情检测的误报、检测滞后和及时性。使用交叉验证程序对性能进行评估。结果 的灵敏度为71.8%，特异度为95.5%。时效性的中位数为1 周(范围0~4.5)。结论 该方法对流感疫情的检测具有较强的特异性。流行病阈值在检测季节性流行病和避免错误警报方面的敏感度和特异度之间的良好平衡对公共卫生目的有好处。这种方法可以作为欧洲国家确定年度流感疫情开始时间的标准。
Please cite this paper as: Vega et al. (2012) Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the moving epidemic method. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(4), 546–558. Background Timely influenza surveillance is important to monitor influenza epidemics. Objectives (i) To calculate the epidemic threshold for influenza‐like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARI) in 19 countries, as well as the thresholds for different levels of intensity. (ii) To evaluate the performance of these thresholds. Methods The moving epidemic method (MEM) has been developed to determine the baseline influenza activity and an epidemic threshold. False alerts, detection lags and timeliness of the detection of epidemics were calculated. The performance was evaluated using a cross‐validation procedure. Results The overall sensitivity of the MEM threshold was 71·8% and the specificity was 95·5%. The median of the timeliness was 1 week (range: 0–4·5). Conclusions The method produced a robust and specific signal to detect influenza epidemics. The good balance between the sensitivity and specificity of the epidemic threshold to detect seasonal epidemics and avoid false alerts has advantages for public health purposes. This method may serve as standard to define the start of the annual influenza epidemic in countries in Europe.
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