Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 with stochastic and deterministic approaches: Africa and Europe.
Modeling and forecasting the spread of COVID-19 with stochastic and deterministic approaches: Africa and Europe.
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DOI：
10.1186/s13662-021-03213-2
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发表时间：
2021
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
İğret Araz S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Atangana A;İğret Araz S
利用从欧洲和非洲国家收集的现有数据，我们对截至2020年9月10日的未来每日死亡和感染人数的预测进行了统计分析。我们使用许多现有的统计理论对从这两个大陆收集的数据进行了大量的统计分析。我们的预测显示，在更糟糕的情况下，欧洲可能会出现第二波传播，非洲的感染人数将呈指数级增长。统计分析的投影使我们引入了一种扩展形式的Well-Bancmange函数，以进一步捕捉具有分形性质的扩散。考虑了一个描述扩散的9个子类的数学模型，首先将其转化为一个随机系统，给出了该模型的存在性和唯一性。然后将模型推广到非局部算子的概念；由于非线性，提出了一种改进的数值格式并用于数值模拟。建议的数学模型能够预测在不久的将来出现的两到三波价差。
Using the existing collected data from European and African countries, we present a statistical analysis of forecast of the future number of daily deaths and infections up to 10 September 2020. We presented numerous statistical analyses of collected data from both continents using numerous existing statistical theories. Our predictions show the possibility of the second wave of spread in Europe in the worse scenario and an exponential growth in the number of infections in Africa. The projection of statistical analysis leads us to introducing an extended version of the well-blancmange function to further capture the spread with fractal properties. A mathematical model depicting the spread with nine sub-classes is considered, first converted to a stochastic system, where the existence and uniqueness are presented. Then the model is extended to the concept of nonlocal operators; due to nonlinearity, a modified numerical scheme is suggested and used to present numerical simulations. The suggested mathematical model is able to predict two to three waves of the spread in the near future.
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