Field‐scale analysis of miscanthus production indicates climate change may increase the opportunity for water quality improvement in a key Iowa watershed
Field‐scale analysis of miscanthus production indicates climate change may increase the opportunity for water quality improvement in a key Iowa watershed
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对芒草生产的田间规模分析表明，气候变化可能会增加爱荷华州一个关键流域水质改善的机会
DOI：
10.1111/gcbb.13078
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发表时间：
2023
期刊：
影响因子：
5.6
通讯作者：
VanLoocke, Andy
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ferin, Kelsie M.;Balson, Tyler;Audia, Ellen;Ward, Adam S.;Liess, Stefan;Twine, Tracy E.;VanLoocke, Andy
浣熊河流域是爱荷华州最大城市饮用水的主要来源，并在密西西比河流域的高营养输出中发挥着重要作用。未来的气候变化可能对生物、生理和农艺过程产生重大影响，从而对生态系统服务构成威胁。减少该流域内氮（N）负荷的努力包括当地诉讼和实施爱荷华州营养物减少战略，该战略建议将生物能源作物（即，芒草）在目前的玉米-大豆景观达到硝酸盐负荷减少41%。本研究的重点是通过使用农业生态系统模型（Agro ‐ IBIS）和水文模型（THMB）模拟历史和未来土地利用情景下的氮输出，分辨率为500米，类似于农田的规模。模式模拟由历史、世纪中期和世纪晚期的CMIP 5气候数据驱动，并在RCP 4.5和8.5变暖预测下进行。使用最近的作物利润分析的爱荷华州，盈利能力的地图和氮淋失阈值被用来确定芒草应取代玉米大豆面积，以最大限度地减少氮污染。我们的研究结果表明，芒草列入低利润和高N淋溶区可以导致在当前气候条件下减少4%的N损失，并可能减少21%-26%的N损失在未来的气候条件下，这意味着水质有可能继续改善在未来的气候条件下，战略实施的保护措施，包括在未来的农场管理计划。
The Raccoon River Basin is the primary source for drinking water in Iowa's largest city and plays a major role in the Mississippi River Basin's high nutrient exports. Future climate change may have major impacts on the biological, physiological, and agronomic processes imposing a threat to ecosystem services. Efforts to reduce nitrogen (N) loads within this basin have included local litigation and the implementation of the Iowa Nutrient Reduction Strategy, which suggest incorporating bioenergy crops (i.e., miscanthus) within the current corn–soybean landscape to reach a 41% reduction in nitrate loads. This study focuses on simulating N export for historical and future land use scenarios by using an agroecosystem model (Agro‐IBIS) and a hydrology model (THMB) at the 500‐m resolution, similar to the scale of agricultural fields. Model simulations are driven by CMIP5 climate data for historical, mid‐century, and late‐century under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 warming projections. Using recent crop profit analyses for the state of Iowa, profitability maps were generated and nitrogen leaching thresholds were used to determine where miscanthus should replace corn–soybean area to maximize reductions in N pollution. Our results show that miscanthus inclusion on low profit and high N leaching areas can result in a 4% reduction of N loss under current climate conditions and may reduce N loss by 21%–26% under future climate conditions, implying that water quality has the potential continue to improve under future climate conditions when strategically implemented conservation practices are included in future farm management plans.
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DOI：
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DOI：
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发表时间：
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