Measuring the resilience of criminogenic ecosystems to global disruption: A case-study of COVID-19 in China.
Measuring the resilience of criminogenic ecosystems to global disruption: A case-study of COVID-19 in China.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0240077
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发表时间：
2020
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Chen P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Borrion H;Kurland J;Tilley N;Chen P
本文件将复原力作为一个透镜，用以分析灾害和犯罪行为模式面临的其他主要威胁。介绍了一套指标和数学模型，目的是定量描述犯罪水平的变化，并与其他情况下的预期变化进行比较，以及通过调整和随后恢复这些模式可能预期的变化。使用COVID-19大流行期间的商业盗窃数据证明了拟议弹性评估工具的有效性。在83天的时间里，研究城市（中国）的犯罪率下降了64%，之后每日犯罪率回升到高于预期的水平。建议的复原力指标被推荐作为基准工具，以评估和比较COVID-19政策对犯罪和公共安全的全球影响。
This paper uses resilience as a lens through which to analyse disasters and other major threats to patterns of criminal behaviour. A set of indicators and mathematical models are introduced that aim to quantitatively describe changes in crime levels in comparison to what could otherwise be expected, and what might be expected by way of adaptation and subsequent resumption of those patterns. The validity of the proposed resilience assessment tool is demonstrated using commercial theft data from the COVID-19 pandemic period. A 64 per cent reduction in crime was found in the studied city (China) during an 83-day period, before daily crime levels bounced back to higher than expected values. The proposed resilience indicators are recommended as benchmarking instruments for evaluating and comparing the global impact of COVID-19 policies on crime and public safety.
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