Simulation vs. Definition: Differing Approaches to Setting Probabilities for Agent Behaviour
Simulation vs. Definition: Differing Approaches to Setting Probabilities for Agent Behaviour
复制标题
模拟与定义：设置代理行为概率的不同方法
DOI：
10.3390/land4040914
复制
发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
3.9
通讯作者：
A. Daigneault
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Fraser J. Morgan;P. Brown;A. Daigneault
虽然地理学家和经济学家经常合作开发土地利用和土地覆盖变化模型，但很少研究他们建模方法的差异如何影响结果。为了建立更好地代表真实的世界的模型，我们（两个经济学家和一个地理学家）开发了一个经济上的接地，空间上明确的，基于代理的模型，以探讨新西兰农村土地利用的环境政策的影响。这种跨学科的合作提出了一些建模方法的差异。一个关键的区别，本文的重点，是在其中的过程中，塑造代理的行为被集成在模型中的方式。使用该模型和全国代表性的调查，我们比较了两个学科对齐的方法来设置一个农民代理的土地利用转换的可能性的土地利用效果。虽然我们预计，这些方法将显着影响模型的结果，在流域尺度上，他们产生了类似的趋势和结果。然而，在分流域尺度上的进一步分析表明，确定土地用途转换可能性的方法确实很重要。虽然这里列出的结果不会完全解决学科差异，但它们确实概述了需要考虑两个学科的预测代理行为的异质性。
While geographers and economists regularly work together on the development of land-use and land-cover change models, research on how differences in their modelling approaches affects the results is rare. Answering calls for more coordination between the two disciplines in order to build models that better represent the real world, we (two economists and a geographer) developed an economically grounded, spatially explicit, agent-based model to explore the effects of environmental policy on rural land use in New Zealand. This inter-disciplinary collaboration raised a number of differences in modelling approach. One key difference, and the focus of this paper, is the way in which processes that shape the behaviour of agents are integrated within the model. Using the model and a nationally representative survey, we compare the land-use effects of two disciplinary-aligned approaches to setting a farmer agent’s likelihood of land-use conversion. While we anticipated that the approaches would significantly affect model outcomes, at a catchment scale they produced similar trends and results. However, further analysis at a sub-catchment scale suggests the approach to setting the likelihood of land-use conversion does matter. While the results outlined here will not fully resolve the disciplinary differences, they do outline the need to account for heterogeneity in the predicted agent behaviours for both disciplines.
影响因子：
4.9
作者：
Malanson, George P.;Verdery, Ashton M.;Walsh, Stephen J.;Sawangdee, Yothin;Heumann, Benjamin W.;McDaniel, Philip M.;Frizzelle, Brian G.;Williams, Nathalie E.;Yao, Xiaozheng;Entwisle, Barbara;Rindfuss, Ronald R.
通讯作者：
Rindfuss, Ronald R.