Changing crops in response to climate: virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an agent based simulation.
Changing crops in response to climate: virtual Nang Rong, Thailand in an agent based simulation.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apgeog.2014.06.010
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发表时间：
2014-09-01
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
Rindfuss, Ronald R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Malanson, George P.;Verdery, Ashton M.;Walsh, Stephen J.;Sawangdee, Yothin;Heumann, Benjamin W.;McDaniel, Philip M.;Frizzelle, Brian G.;Williams, Nathalie E.;Yao, Xiaozheng;Entwisle, Barbara;Rindfuss, Ronald R.
扩展的气候变化对农业土地利用的影响进行了探讨，在泰国东北部的村庄发现的系统类型。一个基于代理的模型开发的Nang Rong区被用来模拟茉莉花水稻，重稻，木薯和甘蔗分配的土地。模型中的土地使用选择取决于可能的经济结果，但也包括了依赖于家庭人口统计的有限理性因素。社会经济动态在系统中是内生的，而气候变化则被作为外生驱动因素加入。村庄以许多不同的方式改变了他们的农业努力。大多数村庄减少了耕地面积，主要是减少了茉莉香米的种植，但其他村庄没有。对气候变化响应的变化表明这种类型的系统对初始条件和路径依赖的潜在敏感性。我们的虚拟村庄和该地区的真实的村庄之间的差异表明了有限理性和限制模型应用的影响。
The effects of extended climatic variability on agricultural land use were explored for the type of system found in villages of northeastern Thailand. An agent based model developed for the Nang Rong district was used to simulate land allotted to jasmine rice, heavy rice, cassava, and sugar cane. The land use choices in the model depended on likely economic outcomes, but included elements of bounded rationality in dependence on household demography. The socioeconomic dynamics are endogenous in the system, and climate changes were added as exogenous drivers. Villages changed their agricultural effort in many different ways. Most villages reduced the amount of land under cultivation, primarily with reduction in jasmine rice, but others did not. The variation in responses to climate change indicates potential sensitivity to initial conditions and path dependence for this type of system. The differences between our virtual villages and the real villages of the region indicate effects of bounded rationality and limits on model applications.
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影响因子：
3.1
作者：
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通讯作者：
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DOI：
10.1080/13658810410001713399
发表时间：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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作者：
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