The role of vaccination and public awareness in medium-term forecasts of monkeypox incidence in the United Kingdom
The role of vaccination and public awareness in medium-term forecasts of monkeypox incidence in the United Kingdom
复制标题
疫苗接种和公众意识在英国猴痘发病率中期预测中的作用
DOI：
10.1101/2022.08.15.22278788
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发表时间：
2022
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Brand S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brand S
猴痘病毒（MPXV）通过人与人之间的密切接触迅速传播，主要是在男男性行为者（MSM）社区中。由于知识和健康警告的增加而引起的行为变化可能会减缓传播速度，疫苗接种可能是一种有效的长期干预措施。在这里，我们调查了目前的流行在英国人口和模拟控制选项超过12周的预测使用随机离散人口传播模型，其中包括男男性接触者的状态，新的性伴侣的形成率，和一个潜在的随机大小的集合种群结构。我们发现病毒可能已经感染了相当大比例的性活动最高的男男性接触者群体（32.5%; 15.9% - 44.9%预测IQR）;相关的免疫力，尽管在英国的MSM社区中形成了一个小的但性活跃的部分，加上行为驱动的猴痘感染者传播率的下降，导致病例发生率在预测期（12周）内趋于平缓，然后下降。如果在短期内提供疫苗，以活动最高的男男性行为者为目标，以进一步阻断流行病的传播，那么疫苗接种是最有益的。
Monkeypox virus (MPXV) is spreading rapidly through close human-to-human contact primarily amongst communities of men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). Behavioural change arising from increased knowledge and health warnings may decelerate the rate of transmission and Vaccinia-based vaccination is likely to be an effective longer-term intervention. Here we investigate the current epidemic within the UK population and simulate control options over a 12 week projection using a stochastic discrete-population transmission model which includes MSM status, rate of formation of new sexual partners, and an underlying random sized metapopulation structure. We find that the virus may have already infected a significant proportion of the MSM group with the highest sexual activity (32.5%; 15.9% - 44.9% prediction IQR); the associated immunity, albeit among groups that form a small but sexually active part of the MSM community in the UK, coupled to behavioural driven decrease in the transmission rate of individuals infected with monkeypox, leads to case incidence flattening and then declining over the projection period (12 weeks). Vaccination is most beneficial when targeted to MSM with highest activity if delivered in the near term to further interrupt transmission amongst those driving the epidemic.
影响因子：
4.3
作者：
L. Whittles;P. White;X. Didelot
通讯作者：
X. Didelot
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Chan HF;Skali A;Savage DA;Stadelmann D;Torgler B
通讯作者：
Torgler B