Characterizing the transmission dynamics and control of ebola virus disease.
Characterizing the transmission dynamics and control of ebola virus disease.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pbio.1002057
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发表时间：
2015-01
期刊：
影响因子：
9.8
通讯作者：
Nishiura H
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Chowell G;Nishiura H
精心校准的传播模型有可能指导公共卫生官员了解控制西非正在发生的埃博拉病毒病流行所需干预措施的性质和规模。仔细校准的传播模型有可能指导公共卫生官员了解控制流行病所需干预措施的性质和规模。在利比里亚持续的埃博拉病毒病（EVD）流行的背景下，Drake及其同事在本期PLOS Biology中采用了一种优雅的建模方法来捕获社区和卫生保健环境中出现的继发病例数量的分布。他们的研究结果强调了提高安全埋葬率和寻求住院治疗的感染者比例以及医院能力对实现流行病控制的作用。然而，西非EVD传播和控制的进一步建模工作应利用该地区传播的时空模式，将空间异质性纳入传播过程。迫切需要详细的数据集来描述人口行为的时间变化，不同空间尺度的接触网络，人口流动模式，医院环境中感染控制措施的依从性以及住院率和报告率。
Carefully calibrated transmission models have the potential to guide public health officials on the nature and scale of the interventions required to control the ongoing Ebola virus disease epidemic in West Africa. Carefully calibrated transmission models have the potential to guide public health officials on the nature and scale of the interventions required to control epidemics. In the context of the ongoing Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in Liberia, Drake and colleagues, in this issue of PLOS Biology, employed an elegant modeling approach to capture the distributions of the number of secondary cases that arise in the community and health care settings in the context of changing population behaviors and increasing hospital capacity. Their findings underscore the role of increasing the rate of safe burials and the fractions of infectious individuals who seek hospitalization together with hospital capacity to achieve epidemic control. However, further modeling efforts of EVD transmission and control in West Africa should utilize the spatial-temporal patterns of spread in the region by incorporating spatial heterogeneity in the transmission process. Detailed datasets are urgently needed to characterize temporal changes in population behaviors, contact networks at different spatial scales, population mobility patterns, adherence to infection control measures in hospital settings, and hospitalization and reporting rates.
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DOI：
10.1371/currents.outbreaks.9e4c4294ec8ce1adad283172b16bc908
发表时间：
2014-09-18
期刊：
PLoS currents
影响因子：
--
作者：
Towers, Sherry;Patterson-Lomba, Oscar;Castillo-Chavez, Carlos
通讯作者：
Castillo-Chavez, Carlos
影响因子：
19
作者：
Nishiura, H.;Chowell, G.
通讯作者：
Chowell, G.
DOI：
10.1126/science.1260612
发表时间：
2014-11-21
期刊：
Science (New York, N.Y.)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Pandey A;Atkins KE;Medlock J;Wenzel N;Townsend JP;Childs JE;Nyenswah TG;Ndeffo-Mbah ML;Galvani AP
通讯作者：
Galvani AP
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa1411100
发表时间：
2014-10-16
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
WHO Ebola Response Team;Aylward B;Barboza P;Bawo L;Bertherat E;Bilivogui P;Blake I;Brennan R;Briand S;Chakauya JM;Chitala K;Conteh RM;Cori A;Croisier A;Dangou JM;Diallo B;Donnelly CA;Dye C;Eckmanns T;Ferguson NM;Formenty P;Fuhrer C;Fukuda K;Garske T;Gasasira A;Gbanyan S;Graaff P;Heleze E;Jambai A;Jombart T;Kasolo F;Kadiobo AM;Keita S;Kertesz D;Koné M;Lane C;Markoff J;Massaquoi M;Mills H;Mulba JM;Musa E;Myhre J;Nasidi A;Nilles E;Nouvellet P;Nshimirimana D;Nuttall I;Nyenswah T;Olu O;Pendergast S;Perea W;Polonsky J;Riley S;Ronveaux O;Sakoba K;Santhana Gopala Krishnan R;Senga M;Shuaib F;Van Kerkhove MD;Vaz R;Wijekoon Kannangarage N;Yoti Z
通讯作者：
Yoti Z
影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Maganga, Gael D.;Kapetshi, Jimmy;Leroy, Eric M.
通讯作者：
Leroy, Eric M.