Estimation of soil moisture using modified antecedent precipitation index with application in landslide predictions
Estimation of soil moisture using modified antecedent precipitation index with application in landslide predictions
复制标题
使用修正的前期降水指数估算土壤湿度并应用于滑坡预测
DOI：
10.1007/s10346-019-01255-y
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发表时间：
2019-08
期刊：
影响因子：
6.7
通讯作者：
Guiwen Rong
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Binru Zhao;Qiang Dai;Dawei Han;Huichao Dai;Jingqiao Mao;Lu Zhuo;Guiwen Rong
土壤水分在陆气相互作用系统中起着关键作用。虽然可以通过现场测量、卫星遥感和水文模型来估计土壤湿度，但使用指标来指示土壤水分状况是另一种有用的方法。在这项研究中，其中一个指标--前期降水指数(API)被探索。对传统版本的API提出了修改建议，引入了两个参数，使其更符合物理过程。首先，允许退缩系数随着气温的变化而变化，这可以考虑到蒸散过程的变化。其次，API值受API值的最大值限制，占土壤的最大持水量。然后，通过与现场测量的土壤湿度进行比较，对修正后的API进行了校准和验证。这两个数据集之间的相关性表明，与传统的API相比，改进的API能够更好地反映土壤水分状况。通过将改进的API应用于意大利北部埃米利亚-罗马尼亚地区的滑坡预测，进一步探索了该API指示土壤水分状况的能力。构造了近期3天降雨量与前期土壤湿度阈值(RS阈值)的关系，其中土壤湿度用改进的API指数表示。利用权变矩阵和接收机工作特性(ROC)曲线对RS阈值进行了验证。通过比较RS阈值和降雨量阈值的预测性能，发现RS阈值在较高的命中率和较低的虚警率方面具有较好的预测能力。实证结果表明，改进的API能够提供更好的土壤水分状况指标，证明了所提出的改进的有效性。
Soil moisture plays a key role in land-atmosphere interaction systems. Although it can be estimated through in situ measurements, satellite remote sensing, and hydrological modelling, using indicators to index soil moisture conditions is another useful way. In this study, one of these indicators, the antecedent precipitation index (API), is explored. Modifications were proposed to the conventional version of API by introducing two parameters to make it more in line with the physical process. First, the recession coefficient is allowed to vary with the change of air temperature, which could take into account the variation of the evapotranspiration process. Second, the API value is restricted by the maximum value of API, accounting for the maximum water holding capacity of the soil. The modified API was then calibrated and validated by comparing with the in situ measured soil moisture. The better correlation between these two datasets demonstrates that the modified API could better indicate soil moisture conditions, compared with the conventional API. The capability of the modified API to index soil moisture conditions was further explored by applying it to landslide predictions in the Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy. Here, the recent 3-day rainfall vs the antecedent soil wetness thresholds (RS thresholds) were constructed, in which the soil wetness is indexed by the modified API. The validation of RS thresholds was carried out with the use of the contingency matrix and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. By comparing the prediction performance between RS thresholds and rainfall thresholds, it is found that RS threshold could provide better prediction capabilities in terms of higher hit rate and lower false alarm rate. The positive results indicate that the modified API could provide superior performance of indexing soil moisture conditions, demonstrating the effectiveness of the proposed modifications.
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影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Gariano, S. L.;Brunetti, M. T.;Guzzetti, F.
通讯作者：
Guzzetti, F.
影响因子：
6.7
作者：
A. Posner;K. Georgakakos
通讯作者：
A. Posner;K. Georgakakos
DOI：
--
发表时间：
--
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
C. Gruhier;P. de Rosnay;S. Hasenauer;T. Holmes;R. de Jeu;Y. Kerr;E. Mougin;E. Njoku;F. Tim
通讯作者：
C. Gruhier;P. de Rosnay;S. Hasenauer;T. Holmes;R. de Jeu;Y. Kerr;E. Mougin;E. Njoku;F. Tim
影响因子：
2
作者：
Glade, T;Crozier, M;Smith, P
通讯作者：
Smith, P
DOI：
10.1007/978-3-642-41714-6_12310
发表时间：
1991
期刊：
--
影响因子：
--
作者：
農業土木学会応用水文研究部会;農業土木学会水文・水環境研究部会;農業農村工学会水文・水環境研究部会
通讯作者：
農業土木学会応用水文研究部会;農業土木学会水文・水環境研究部会;農業農村工学会水文・水環境研究部会