Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of High-Intensity Precipitation Events over West Africa for the Late Twenty-First Century*
Projected Changes in the Annual Cycle of High-Intensity Precipitation Events over West Africa for the Late Twenty-First Century*
复制标题
二十一世纪末西非高强度降水事件年度周期的预计变化*
DOI：
10.1175/jcli-d-14-00854.1
复制
发表时间：
2015
影响因子：
4.9
通讯作者：
M. Nikiema
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. B. Sylla;F. Giorgi;J. Pal;P. Gibba;Ibourahima Kebe;M. Nikiema
在这项研究中，高强度的日降水事件的年周期在西非的人为温室气体的世纪后期的响应进行了研究，使用高分辨率的区域气候模式实验的集合。对于目前的一天，RCM合奏大大提高了模拟的年周期的各种降水统计相比，驱动地球系统模型。21世纪后期预测的平均降水量变化表现出季风季节的延迟，与以前的研究一致。此外，这些预测表明，特别是在前季风和成熟季风早期阶段，非常潮湿事件的频率普遍下降，但强度增加，在萨赫勒和RCP 8.5比几内亚湾和RCP 4.5更明显。这是由于边界层中存在较强的水汽辐合，一旦对流开始，这种辐合就会维持强烈的降水。Prem.
AbstractIn this study, the response of the annual cycle of high-intensity daily precipitation events over West Africa to anthropogenic greenhouse gas for the late twenty-first century is investigated using an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model experiments. For the present day, the RCM ensemble substantially improves the simulation of the annual cycle for various precipitation statistics compared to the driving Earth system models. The late-twenty-first-century projected changes in mean precipitation exhibit a delay of the monsoon season, consistent with previous studies. In addition, these projections indicate a prevailing decrease in frequency but increase in intensity of very wet events, particularly in the premonsoon and early mature monsoon stages, more pronounced over the Sahel and in RCP8.5 than the Gulf of Guinea and in RCP4.5. This is due to the presence of stronger moisture convergence in the boundary layer that sustains intense precipitation once convection is initiated. The prem...
影响因子：
5.1
作者：
Jones, C. D.;Hughes, J. K.;Zerroukat, M.
通讯作者：
Zerroukat, M.
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Sillmann, J.;Kharin, V. V.;Bronaugh, D.
通讯作者：
Bronaugh, D.