The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins
The Paris Agreement objectives will likely halt future declines of emperor penguins
复制标题
巴黎协定的目标可能会阻止帝企鹅未来的衰退
DOI：
10.1111/gcb.14864
复制
发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Ji, Rubao
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie;Holland, Marika;Iles, David;Labrousse, Sara;Landrum, Laura;Garnier, Jimmy;Caswell, Hal;Weimerskirch, Henri;LaRue, Michelle;Ji, Rubao
《巴黎协定》是一项应对气候变化的多国倡议，旨在将本世纪全球气温升幅控制在比工业化前水平高2°C以内，同时努力将升幅控制在1.5°C以内。直到最近，还没有一套耦合的气候模拟系统，能够模拟气候的时间动态，从而使全球平均温度稳定在比工业化前水平高1.5和2°C的水平。因此，评估《巴黎协定》生态影响的少数研究使用了特别方法。新的具体减缓气候模拟的发展现在为生态影响评估提供了前所未有的机会。在这里，我们使用气候依赖的集合种群模型，在新的气候变化情景下，对所有已知的帝企鹅（Aptenodytes forsteri）殖民地的动态进行了预测，以满足巴黎协定的目标。我们的模型包括各种扩散行为，以便企鹅可以通过运动和栖息地选择来调节气候效应。在正常的温室气体排放下，我们表明，到2100年，80%的殖民地预计将准灭绝，因此，无论传播能力如何，帝企鹅的总丰度预计将相对于其初始大小下降至少81%。相比之下，如果巴黎协定的目标得以实现，南极洲将存在可行的帝企鹅避难所，在巴黎1.5和2气候情景下，到2100年，预计只有19%和31%的企鹅群将准灭绝。因此，全球人口预计将在巴黎1.5和巴黎2下分别下降至少31%和44%。然而，人口增长率在2060年稳定下来，使得全球人口在巴黎1.5下仅下降0.07%，在巴黎2下仅下降0.34%，从而阻止全球人口下降。因此，全球气候政策比其固有的扩散能力更有能力保护帝企鹅的未来。
The Paris Agreement is a multinational initiative to combat climate change by keeping a global temperature increase in this century to 2°C above preindustrial levels while pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5°C. Until recently, ensembles of coupled climate simulations producing temporal dynamics of climate en route to stable global mean temperature at 1.5 and 2°C above preindustrial levels were not available. Hence, the few studies that have assessed the ecological impact of the Paris Agreement used ad‐hoc approaches. The development of new specific mitigation climate simulations now provides an unprecedented opportunity to inform ecological impact assessments. Here we project the dynamics of all known emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri) colonies under new climate change scenarios meeting the Paris Agreement objectives using a climate‐dependent‐metapopulation model. Our model includes various dispersal behaviors so that penguins could modulate climate effects through movement and habitat selection. Under business‐as‐usual greenhouse gas emissions, we show that 80% of the colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100, thus the total abundance of emperor penguins is projected to decline by at least 81% relative to its initial size, regardless of dispersal abilities. In contrast, if the Paris Agreement objectives are met, viable emperor penguin refuges will exist in Antarctica, and only 19% and 31% colonies are projected to be quasiextinct by 2100 under the Paris 1.5 and 2 climate scenarios respectively. As a result, the global population is projected to decline by at least by 31% under Paris 1.5 and 44% under Paris 2. However, population growth rates stabilize in 2060 such that the global population will be only declining at 0.07% under Paris 1.5 and 0.34% under Paris 2, thereby halting the global population decline. Hence, global climate policy has a larger capacity to safeguard the future of emperor penguins than their intrinsic dispersal abilities.
登录
查看更多内容
可变环境中的人口动态 I. 长期增长率和灭绝
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
S. Tuljapurkar;S. Orzack
通讯作者：
S. Orzack
在充满敌意的世界中快乐的脚步？
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Ropert-Coudert, Yan;Chiaradia, Andre;Ainley, David;Barbosa, Andres;Boersma, P. Dee;Brasso, Rebecka;Dewar, Meagan;Ellenberg, Ursula;García-Borboroglu, Pablo;Emmerson, Louise
通讯作者：
Emmerson, Louise
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Jahn, Alexandra
通讯作者：
Jahn, Alexandra
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Koons, David N.;Pavard, Samuel;Metcalf, C. Jessica E.
通讯作者：
Metcalf, C. Jessica E.
种群恢复的局限性：帝企鹅案例的随机方法
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
S. Jenouvrier;C. Barbraud;H. Weimerskirch;H. Caswell
通讯作者：
H. Caswell