An extended Weight Kernel Density Estimation model forecasts COVID-19 onset risk and identifies spatiotemporal variations of lockdown effects in China.
An extended Weight Kernel Density Estimation model forecasts COVID-19 onset risk and identifies spatiotemporal variations of lockdown effects in China.
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扩展的权核密度估计模型预测了新冠肺炎的发病风险，并识别了中国封锁效应的时空变化。
DOI：
10.1038/s42003-021-01677-2
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发表时间：
2021-01-25
影响因子：
5.9
通讯作者：
Jia P
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Shi W;Tong C;Zhang A;Wang B;Shi Z;Yao Y;Jia P
重要的是要预测COVID-19症状发作的风险，从而评估城市封锁措施如何有效地降低这种风险。这项研究是第一次全面、高分辨率地调查武汉封锁对中国347个城市COVID-19症状发作风险影响的时空异质性。开发了一个扩展的加权核密度估计模型来预测两种情况下的COVID-19发病风险（即，无论是否有武汉封锁）。与未实施封城的情况相比，武汉封城总体上推迟了1-2天的COVID-19发病风险峰值的到来，并降低了所有城市的风险峰值。在中国超过40%的城市中，封锁导致的发病风险下降超过8%，部分城市高达21.3%。在封锁之前，封锁在中等风险地区最有效。Wenzhong Shi等人提出了一种扩展的加权核密度估计模型，用于预测在武汉封锁和不封锁的情况下，中国347个城市的COVID-19发病风险以及相应的症状发作和空间异质性。作者发现，封锁将COVID-19的发病高峰推迟了1-2天，发病风险降低了21%。
It is important to forecast the risk of COVID-19 symptom onset and thereby evaluate how effectively the city lockdown measure could reduce this risk. This study is a first comprehensive, high-resolution investigation of spatiotemporal heterogeneities on the effect of the Wuhan lockdown on the risk of COVID-19 symptom onset in 347 Chinese cities. An extended Weight Kernel Density Estimation model was developed to predict the COVID-19 onset risk under two scenarios (i.e., with and without the Wuhan lockdown). The Wuhan lockdown, compared with the scenario without lockdown implementation, in general, delayed the arrival of the COVID-19 onset risk peak for 1–2 days and lowered risk peak values among all cities. The decrease of the onset risk attributed to the lockdown was more than 8% in over 40% of Chinese cities, and up to 21.3% in some cities. Lockdown was the most effective in areas with medium risk before lockdown. Wenzhong Shi et al. propose an extended Weight Kernel Density Estimation model to predict the COVID-19 onset risk, with and without the Wuhan lockdown, and corresponding symptom onset and spatial heterogeneity in 347 Chinese cities. The authors find that the lockdown delayed COVID-19 peak onset by 1–2 days and decreased onset risk by up to 21%.
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影响因子：
3.8
作者：
Ak Ç;Ergönül Ö;Şencan İ;Torunoğlu MA;Gönen M
通讯作者：
Gönen M
影响因子：
19
作者：
Ganyani, Tapiwa;Kremer, Cecile;Hens, Niel
通讯作者：
Hens, Niel
影响因子：
8.1
作者：
Paixão ES;Teixeira MG;Rodrigues LC
通讯作者：
Rodrigues LC
DOI：
10.1108/13639511311329705
发表时间：
2013-01-01
影响因子：
2
作者：
Hart, Timothy C.;Zandbergen, Paul A.
通讯作者：
Zandbergen, Paul A.
影响因子：
8.1
作者：
Jia P;Yang S
通讯作者：
Yang S