Identifying adolescents at risk for depression: Assessment of a global prediction model in the Great Smoky Mountains Study.
Identifying adolescents at risk for depression: Assessment of a global prediction model in the Great Smoky Mountains Study.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jpsychires.2022.08.017
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发表时间：
2022-11
影响因子：
4.8
通讯作者：
Kieling, Christian
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Caye, Arthur;Marchionatti, Lauro E.;Pereira, Rivka;Fisher, Helen L.;Kohrt, Brandon A.;Mondelli, Valeria;McGinnis, Ellen;Copeland, William E.;Kieling, Christian
识别青少年早期抑郁风险评分（IDEA-RS）已经在四大洲的样本中进行了外部评估，但北美缺乏。我们的目的是评估IDEA-RS在预测美国青少年重度抑郁症（MDD）未来发病方面的表现。我们将在巴西开发的原始IDEA-RS模型的截距和权重应用于大烟山研究（GSMS）样本，以生成每个15岁参与者的个人概率（N = 1029）。然后，我们使用简单的病例混合校正和修正模型，评估这些预测对19岁时MDD诊断的效果。此外，我们比较了父母或青少年提供的信息的优先级如何影响表现。当使用未校正的权重时，IDEA-RS预测GSMS中的MDD的c统计量为0.63 （95% CI 0.53-0.74）。病例混合修正模型和修正模型将性能分别提高到0.69和0.67。通过优先考虑青少年或其父母的报告，在表现上没有发现显著差异。IDEA-RS能够在GSMS队列中分析出有晚发抑郁症风险的青少年，并具有以上的机会歧视。目前，IDEA-RS在五大洲的表现超出预期。
The Identifying Depression Early in Adolescence Risk Score (IDEA-RS) has been externally assessed in samples from four continents, but North America is lacking. Our aim here was to evaluate the performance of the IDEA-RS in predicting future onset of Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) among adolescents from the United States of America. We applied the intercept and weights of the original IDEA-RS model developed in Brazil to the Great Smoky Mountains Study (GSMS) sample to generate individual probabilities for each participant at age 15 (N = 1029). We then evaluated the performance of such predictions against the diagnosis of MDD at age 19 using simple, case-mix corrected and refitted models. Furthermore, we compared how prioritizing the information provided by parents or by adolescents affected performance. The IDEA-RS exhibited a C-statistic of 0.63 (95% CI 0.53–0.74) to predict MDD in the GSMS when applying uncorrected weights. Case-mix corrected and refitted models enhanced performance to 0.69 and 0.67, respectively. No significant difference was found in performance by prioritizing the reports of adolescents or their parents. The IDEA-RS was able to parse out adolescents at risk for a later onset of depression in the GSMS cohort with above chance discrimination. The IDEA-RS has now showed above-chance performance in five continents.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jaac.2013.09.017
发表时间：
2014-01
影响因子：
13.3
作者：
Copeland, William E.;Angold, Adrian;Shanahan, Lilly;Costello, E. Jane
通讯作者：
Costello, E. Jane
影响因子：
6.6
作者：
Salazar de Pablo G;Studerus E;Vaquerizo-Serrano J;Irving J;Catalan A;Oliver D;Baldwin H;Danese A;Fazel S;Steyerberg EW;Stahl D;Fusar-Poli P
通讯作者：
Fusar-Poli P
影响因子：
11.3
作者：
Brathwaite R;Rocha TB;Kieling C;Kohrt BA;Mondelli V;Adewuya AO;Fisher HL
通讯作者：
Fisher HL
影响因子：
39
作者：
Wong, Andrew;Otles, Erkin;Singh, Karandeep
通讯作者：
Singh, Karandeep
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Epskamp S;Borsboom D;Fried EI
通讯作者：
Fried EI