Predicting the risk of future depression among school-attending adolescents in Nigeria using a model developed in Brazil.
Predicting the risk of future depression among school-attending adolescents in Nigeria using a model developed in Brazil.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.psychres.2020.113511
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发表时间：
2020-12
影响因子：
11.3
通讯作者：
Fisher HL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brathwaite R;Rocha TB;Kieling C;Kohrt BA;Mondelli V;Adewuya AO;Fisher HL
pelvis模型预测尼日利亚青少年抑郁症优于偶然。该模型能够区分有抑郁症和无抑郁症的青少年。该模型没有得到很好的校准，表明整体性能较差。用特定背景因素更新模型可能会改善抑郁症的预测。抑郁症通常出现在青春期，是低收入和中等收入国家的一个主要公共卫生问题，世界上90%的青少年生活在这些国家。因此，在尼日利亚这样的国家，预防抑郁症发作的努力至关重要。尼日利亚三分之二的人口年龄在24岁以下。因此，我们测试了在巴西开发的预测模型在尼日利亚青少年样本中预测未来抑郁症的能力。数据来自拉各斯14-16岁的在校学生，他们在2016年和2019年使用儿童和青少年迷你国际神经精神访谈的自我完成版本进行了抑郁症评估。只有1,928名基线时没有抑郁症的学生被纳入其中。基于巴西模型的7个匹配基线社会人口学预测因子，采用惩罚逻辑回归预测每个青少年在随访时发生抑郁症的个体化风险。区分青少年是否患有抑郁症要优于随机（曲线下面积= 0.62（自助校正的95%CI：0.58-0.66）。然而，即使在调整截距后，该模型也没有得到很好的校准，表明与最初的巴西队列相比，整体性能较差。用特定于背景的因素更新模型可能会改善这种情况下对抑郁症的预测。
Pelotas model predicted depression among nigerian adolescents better than chance. The model was able to discriminate adolescents with and without depression. The model was not well-calibrated indicating poor overall performance. Updating the model with context-specific factors may improve depression prediction. Depression commonly emerges in adolescence and is a major public health issue in low- and middle-income countries where 90% of the world's adolescents live. Thus efforts to prevent depression onset are crucial in countries like Nigeria, where two-thirds of the population are aged under 24. Therefore, we tested the ability of a prediction model developed in Brazil to predict future depression in a Nigerian adolescent sample. Data were obtained from school students aged 14–16 years in Lagos, who were assessed in 2016 and 2019 for depression using a self-completed version of the Mini International Neuropsychiatric Interview for Children and Adolescents. Only the 1,928 students free of depression at baseline were included. Penalized logistic regression was used to predict individualized risk of developing depression at follow-up for each adolescent based on the 7 matching baseline sociodemographic predictors from the Brazilian model. Discrimination between adolescents who did and did not develop depression was better than chance (area under the curve = 0.62 (bootstrap-corrected 95% CI: 0.58–0.66). However, the model was not well-calibrated even after adjustment of the intercept, indicating poorer overall performance compared to the original Brazilian cohort. Updating the model with context-specific factors may improve prediction of depression in this setting.
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影响因子：
168.9
作者：
Kakuma, Ritsuko;Minas, Harry;Scheffler, Richard M.
通讯作者：
Scheffler, Richard M.
影响因子：
5.3
作者：
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通讯作者：
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影响因子：
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作者：
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影响因子：
6.4
作者：
Adewuya, Abiodun O.;Oladipo, Eniola O.
通讯作者：
Oladipo, Eniola O.
DOI：
10.1016/j.jaac.2014.10.010
发表时间：
2015-01
影响因子：
13.3
作者：
Avenevoli, Shelli;Swendsen, Joel;He, Jian-Ping;Burstein, Marcy;Merikangas, Kathleen Ries
通讯作者：
Merikangas, Kathleen Ries