Ascertainment rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections from healthcare and community testing in the UK.
Ascertainment rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections from healthcare and community testing in the UK.
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111333
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发表时间：
2023-02-07
影响因子：
2
通讯作者：
Kao, Rowland R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Colman, Ewan;Puspitarani, Gavrila A.;Enright, Jessica;Kao, Rowland R.
通过医疗保健和社区检测确定的SARS-CoV-2感染比例通常是未知的，预计将根据自然因素和寻求检测行为的变化而变化。在这里，我们使用人口监测数据和报告的每日病例数在英国估计的病例确诊率。我们用数学方法描述了确诊率、每日报告病例数、人群患病率以及PCR和侧流检测灵敏度之间的关系，作为自暴露以来时间的函数。将此模型应用于数据，我们估计英国20%-40%的SARS-CoV-2感染被确定为阳性检测，结果因时间和地区而异。α变体的病例以高于在早期大流行中流行的野生型变体的比率被确定，并且对于Delta变体和Omicron BA.1亚谱系再次更高，但是对于BA.2亚谱系更低。成人的病例确诊率高于儿童。我们进一步估计了每日感染人数，并将其与死亡率数据进行比较，以估计在α变体占主导地位的时期内，感染死亡率增加了3倍，并随着疫苗的分布而下降。本手稿是作为“COVID-19建模和未来大流行的准备”主题问题的一部分提交的。
The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections ascertained through healthcare and community testing is generally unknown and expected to vary depending on natural factors and changes in test-seeking behaviour. Here we use population surveillance data and reported daily case numbers in the United Kingdom to estimate the rate of case ascertainment. We mathematically describe the relationship between the ascertainment rate, the daily number of reported cases, population prevalence, and the sensitivity of PCR and Lateral Flow tests as a function time since exposure. Applying this model to the data, we estimate that 20%–40% of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK were ascertained with a positive test with results varying by time and region. Cases of the Alpha variant were ascertained at a higher rate than the wild type variants circulating in the early pandemic, and higher again for the Delta variant and Omicron BA.1 sub-lineage, but lower for the BA.2 sub-lineage. Case ascertainment was higher in adults than in children. We further estimate the daily number of infections and compare this to mortality data to estimate that the infection fatality rate increased by a factor of 3 during the period dominated by the Alpha variant, and declined in line with the distribution of vaccines. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on “Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics”.
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影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Russell TW;Golding N;Hellewell J;Abbott S;Wright L;Pearson CAB;van Zandvoort K;Jarvis CI;Gibbs H;Liu Y;Eggo RM;Edmunds WJ;Kucharski AJ;CMMID COVID-19 working group
通讯作者：
CMMID COVID-19 working group
影响因子：
9.3
作者：
Hellewell J;Russell TW;SAFER Investigators and Field Study Team;Crick COVID-19 Consortium;CMMID COVID-19 working group;Beale R;Kelly G;Houlihan C;Nastouli E;Kucharski AJ
通讯作者：
Kucharski AJ
DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(21)00460-6
发表时间：
2022-01
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Antonelli M;Penfold RS;Merino J;Sudre CH;Molteni E;Berry S;Canas LS;Graham MS;Klaser K;Modat M;Murray B;Kerfoot E;Chen L;Deng J;Österdahl MF;Cheetham NJ;Drew DA;Nguyen LH;Pujol JC;Hu C;Selvachandran S;Polidori L;May A;Wolf J;Chan AT;Hammers A;Duncan EL;Spector TD;Ourselin S;Steves CJ
通讯作者：
Steves CJ
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.09.1464
发表时间：
2020-12
期刊：
International journal of infectious diseases : IJID : official publication of the International Society for Infectious Diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Meyerowitz-Katz G;Merone L
通讯作者：
Merone L
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Noh J;Danuser G
通讯作者：
Danuser G