Estimation of the fraction of COVID-19 infected people in U.S. states and countries worldwide.
Estimation of the fraction of COVID-19 infected people in U.S. states and countries worldwide.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0246772
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发表时间：
2021
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Danuser G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Noh J;Danuser G
自2019冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行开始以来，每日确诊病例和死亡人数均实时公开报告，以控制病毒传播。然而，大量未记录的感染病例掩盖了目前感染人口的真实规模，而感染人口可以说是公共卫生政策决定的最关键数字。我们开发了一个机器学习框架，根据报告的检测结果和死亡人数，估计美国所有50个州和50个感染最严重的国家的实际新冠肺炎病例和当前感染的时间进程。使用已公布的流行病学参数，我们的算法优化了缓慢变化的每日确定率和每天当前感染病例的时间过程。发现对COVID-19病例的严重不确定性在美国各州和世界各国普遍存在。在这50个国家中，有25个国家的实际累计病例估计比确诊病例高5至20倍。我们对累积发病率的估计与美国46个州现有的血清阳性率一致。我们的框架预测，在比利时、巴西和美国等国家，约10%的人口曾被感染过一次。在美国路易斯安那州、格鲁吉亚和佛罗里达等州，截至2020年9月3日，估计目前有超过4%的人口受到感染，而在纽约，这一比例为0.12%。估计目前感染者的实际比例对于任何公共卫生政策的定义都至关重要，到目前为止，公共卫生政策可能因依赖确诊病例而受到误导。
Since the beginning of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, daily counts of confirmed cases and deaths have been publicly reported in real-time to control the virus spread. However, substantial undocumented infections have obscured the true size of the currently infected population, which is arguably the most critical number for public health policy decisions. We developed a machine learning framework to estimate time courses of actual new COVID-19 cases and current infections in all 50 U.S. states and the 50 most infected countries from reported test results and deaths. Using published epidemiological parameters, our algorithm optimized slowly varying daily ascertainment rates and a time course of currently infected cases each day. Severe under-ascertainment of COVID-19 cases was found to be universal across U.S. states and countries worldwide. In 25 out of the 50 countries, actual cumulative cases were estimated to be 5–20 times greater than the confirmed cases. Our estimates of cumulative incidence were in line with the existing seroprevalence rates in 46 U.S. states. Our framework projected for countries like Belgium, Brazil, and the U.S. that ~10% of the population has been infected once. In the U.S. states like Louisiana, Georgia, and Florida, more than 4% of the population was estimated to be currently infected, as of September 3, 2020, while in New York this fraction is 0.12%. The estimation of the actual fraction of currently infected people is crucial for any definition of public health policies, which up to this point may have been misguided by the reliance on confirmed cases.
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DOI：
10.1016/s0140-6736(20)32009-2
发表时间：
2020-10-24
期刊：
Lancet (London, England)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Anand S;Montez-Rath M;Han J;Bozeman J;Kerschmann R;Beyer P;Parsonnet J;Chertow GM
通讯作者：
Chertow GM
DOI：
10.1016/s1473-3099(20)30243-7
发表时间：
2020-06-01
期刊：
The Lancet. Infectious diseases
影响因子：
--
作者：
Verity, Robert;Okell, Lucy C;Ferguson, Neil M
通讯作者：
Ferguson, Neil M
影响因子：
56.3
作者：
To, Kelvin Kai-Wang;Tsang, Owen Tak-Yin;Yuen, Kwok-Yung
通讯作者：
Yuen, Kwok-Yung
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Li, Ruiyun;Pei, Sen;Shaman, Jeffrey
通讯作者：
Shaman, Jeffrey
影响因子：
39
作者：
Havers, Fiona P.;Reed, Carrie;Thornburg, Natalie J.
通讯作者：
Thornburg, Natalie J.