Projection of wildfire activity in southern California in the mid-21st century.
Projection of wildfire activity in southern California in the mid-21st century.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1007/s00382-013-2022-3
复制
发表时间：
2014-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Logan JA
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yue X;Mickley LJ;Logan JA
我们估计了本世纪中叶（2046-2065年）政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）A1 B情景下加州南部的燃烧面积。我们开发了回归和参数化来预测在三个生态区烧毁的面积，并应用当今（1981-2000年）和未来的气象学从套件的大气环流模型（GCMs），这些火灾预测工具。这些回归解释了当前和先前气象因素对野火活动的影响，并解释了1980-2009年期间烧毁面积的40-46%的方差。参数化产生的面积烧毁的温度，降水量和相对湿度的函数，并包括圣安娜风和其他地理因素对野火的影响。它解释了整个加州南部被烧毁面积的38%的方差，以及加州西南部64%的方差。参数化还捕捉了季节性野火在三个生态区南部加州。使用回归分析，我们发现，到本世纪中叶，加州西南部的烧毁面积可能会增加一倍，内华达州山脉增加35%，加州中西部增加10%。参数化表明，到本世纪中叶，加州西南部和内华达州山脉的火灾面积可能增加40%和50%。它还预测，由于11月圣安娜天气温暖干燥，加州西南部的火灾季节将更长。我们的方法提供了本世纪中叶燃烧面积的可靠估计，这是一个关键指标，可用于计算火灾对空气质量，人类健康和相关成本的影响。
We estimate area burned in southern California at mid-century (2046-2065) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario. We develop both regressions and a parameterization to predict area burned in three ecoregions, and apply present-day (1981-2000) and future meteorology from the suite of general circulation models (GCMs) to these fire prediction tools. The regressions account for the impacts of both current and antecedent meteorological factors on wildfire activity and explain 40-46% of the variance in area burned during 1980-2009. The parameterization yields area burned as a function of temperature, precipitation, and relative humidity, and includes the impact of Santa Ana wind and other geographical factors on wildfires. It explains 38% of the variance in area burned over southern California as a whole, and 64% of the variance in southwestern California. The parameterization also captures the seasonality of wildfires in three ecoregions of southern California. Using the regressions, we find that area burned likely doubles in Southwestern California by midcentury, and increases by 35% in the Sierra Nevada and 10% in central western California. The parameterization suggests a likely increase of 40% in area burned in southwestern California and 50% in the Sierra Nevada by midcentury. It also predicts a longer fire season in southwestern California due to warmer and drier conditions on Santa Ana days in November. Our method provides robust estimates of area burned at midcentury, a key metric which can be used to calculate the fire-related effects on air quality, human health, and the associated costs.
登录
查看更多内容
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Hughes, Mimi;Hall, Alex;Kim, Jinwon
通讯作者：
Kim, Jinwon
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Lenihan, James M.;Bachelet, Dominique;Drapek, Raymond
通讯作者：
Drapek, Raymond
影响因子：
10.1
作者：
Luo, Y;Su, B;Field, CB
通讯作者：
Field, CB
影响因子：
2.2
作者：
Ottmar, Roger D.;Sandberg, David V.;Prichard, Susan J.
通讯作者：
Prichard, Susan J.
影响因子：
0.9
作者：
Richardson, Leslie A.;Champ, Patricia A.;Loomis, John B.
通讯作者：
Loomis, John B.