Heterogeneous Traders, House Prices and Healthy Urban Housing Market: A DSGE Model Based on Behavioral Economics
Heterogeneous Traders, House Prices and Healthy Urban Housing Market: A DSGE Model Based on Behavioral Economics
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异质交易者、房价与健康的城市住房市场：基于行为经济学的 DSGE 模型
DOI：
10.1016/j.habitatint.2019.102085
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发表时间：
2020-02
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
夏方舟
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
何怡瑶;夏方舟
健康的城市住房市场应该是相对稳定，体现在房价的合理波动上。然而，自2004年以来，中国房价经历了快速且长期的增长，增长幅度约为人们可支配收入的两倍。这种增长可归因于价值投资者和国内外投机者的异质交易行为。本研究通过构建基于行为经济学理论的动态随机一般均衡（DSGE）模型，探讨了在异质交易者市场中，基本面投资和投机投资如何影响房价和经济波动。还讨论了最优宏观调控政策的制定。结果表明，房地产市场的投机者解释了房价的快速上涨和缓慢下降，这对健康的房地产市场及其产出产生了负面影响。房地产繁荣带来的消费与购房之间的过度替代效应也对最终产出产生负面影响。政策干预模拟实验表明，汇率调控与房产税相结合，作为短期和长期政策的结合，有助于稳定房地产市场和宏观经济。本文认为，为确保新时代经济可持续发展，央行应实施汇率市场化改革，妥善布局房产税落地。
A healthy urban housing market should be characterized by relative stability, which is reflected in reasonable fluctuations in housing prices. However, house prices in China have experienced rapid and prolonged growth of approximately twice that of people's disposable income since 2004. This growth can be attributed to the heterogeneous trading behaviors of value investors and domestic and foreign speculators. By constructing a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model based on the theory of behavioral economics, this study explores how fundamental and speculative investments affect housing prices and economic fluctuations in a market with heterogeneous traders. The devising of optimal macro-control policy is also discussed. Results show that speculators in the housing market explain the rapid rise and slow decline of house prices, which negatively affects a healthy housing market and its output. Excessive substitution effect between consumption and housing purchase resulting from the real estate boom also negatively affects the final output. The simulation experiments of policy intervention show that the combination of exchange rate regulation and property tax contributes to the stability of the housing market and macro-economy as a mix of short- and long-term policies. This paper holds that to ensure the economy's sustainable development in the new era, the central bank should implement market-oriented reforms of the exchange rate and lay out the landing of property tax properly.
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影响因子：
7.1
作者：
Sungchan Cho;Philip Pilsoo Choi
通讯作者：
Sungchan Cho;Philip Pilsoo Choi
DOI：
10.1257/aer.20162005
发表时间：
2016-12
期刊：
PSN: Other Monetary Policy (Topic)
影响因子：
--
作者：
X. Gabaix
通讯作者：
X. Gabaix
DOI：
10.2139/ssrn.2845345
发表时间：
2016-06
期刊：
Institutions & Transition Economics: Microeconomic Issues eJournal
影响因子：
--
作者：
Zhengyi Zhou
通讯作者：
Zhengyi Zhou
影响因子：
8.2
作者：
Greenwood, Robin;Shleifer, Andrei
通讯作者：
Shleifer, Andrei
影响因子：
2.4
作者：
Chuanchuan Zhang;Shen Jia;Rudai Yang
通讯作者：
Chuanchuan Zhang;Shen Jia;Rudai Yang