How predictable are mass extinction events?
How predictable are mass extinction events?
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DOI：
10.1098/rsos.221507
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发表时间：
2023-03
影响因子：
3.5
通讯作者：
Dunhill, Alexander M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Foster, William J.;Allen, Bethany J.;Kitzmann, Niklas H.;Muenchmeyer, Jannes;Rettelbach, Tabea;Witts, James D.;Whittle, Rowan J.;Larina, Ekaterina;Clapham, Matthew E.;Dunhill, Alexander M.
许多现代物种灭绝驱动因素与过去的大规模灭绝事件有共同之处，如气候迅速变暖、栖息地丧失、污染和物种入侵。这种共性提出了一个关键问题：在过去的大灭绝事件中，物种的灭绝风险能否为我们对现代生物多样性危机的预测提供信息？为了研究是否有可能确定哪些物种在大灭绝期间更有可能灭绝，我们使用机器学习算法对二叠纪末、三叠纪末和白垩纪末大灭绝的海洋化石数据集应用了基于功能特征的灭绝风险模型。在测试所获得的选择性模式是否可以用于“预测”其他大灭绝期间所表现出的灭绝选择性之前，推断出每个个体大灭绝事件的灭绝选择性。我们的分析表明，尽管古代危机之间的灭绝选择性模式有一些相似之处，但大规模灭绝事件的选择性是不一致的，这导致了较差的预测性能。这种可预测性的缺乏归因于海洋生态系统的进化，特别是在中生代海洋革命期间，与群落结构的变化以及同步的地球系统变化有关。我们的研究结果表明，在预计的大灭绝期间，过去的灭绝不太可能为预测灭绝风险提供信息。
Many modern extinction drivers are shared with past mass extinction events, such as rapid climate warming, habitat loss, pollution and invasive species. This commonality presents a key question: can the extinction risk of species during past mass extinction events inform our predictions for a modern biodiversity crisis? To investigate if it is possible to establish which species were more likely to go extinct during mass extinctions, we applied a functional trait-based model of extinction risk using a machine learning algorithm to datasets of marine fossils for the end-Permian, end-Triassic and end-Cretaceous mass extinctions. Extinction selectivity was inferred across each individual mass extinction event, before testing whether the selectivity patterns obtained could be used to ‘predict’ the extinction selectivity exhibited during the other mass extinctions. Our analyses show that, despite some similarities in extinction selectivity patterns between ancient crises, the selectivity of mass extinction events is inconsistent, which leads to a poor predictive performance. This lack of predictability is attributed to evolution in marine ecosystems, particularly during the Mesozoic Marine Revolution, associated with shifts in community structure alongside coincident Earth system changes. Our results suggest that past extinctions are unlikely to be informative for predicting extinction risk during a projected mass extinction.
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影响因子：
56.9
作者：
ALVAREZ, LW;ALVAREZ, W;MICHEL, HV
通讯作者：
MICHEL, HV
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Finnegan, Seth;Payne, Jonathan L.;Wang, Steve C.
通讯作者：
Wang, Steve C.
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Dunhill, Alexander M.;Wills, Matthew A.
通讯作者：
Wills, Matthew A.
DOI：
10.1016/j.palaeo.2016.11.005
发表时间：
2017-07-15
影响因子：
3
作者：
Bond, David P. G.;Grasby, Stephen E.
通讯作者：
Grasby, Stephen E.
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Demangel, Isaline;Kovacs, Zsofia;Piller, Werner E.
通讯作者：
Piller, Werner E.