Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis for association of environmental factors with hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China.
Bayesian spatiotemporal analysis for association of environmental factors with hand, foot, and mouth disease in Guangdong, China.
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广东省环境因素与手足口病关联的贝叶斯时空分析
DOI：
10.1038/s41598-018-33109-3
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发表时间：
2018-10-11
影响因子：
4.6
通讯作者：
Hao Y
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Du Z;Lawrence WR;Zhang W;Zhang D;Yu S;Hao Y
手足口病（HFMD）仍然是中国部分地区（特别是广东省）的重大公共卫生和经济负担。虽然气象因素和手足口病之间的关联已经有了很好的记录，但我们对环境因素潜在影响的理解仍存在重大差距。利用中国疾病预防控制中心提供的县级手足口病监测数据和多源环境数据，采用时空贝叶斯模型，分析了手足口病与植被指数、人工地面比例、道路通行能力、温湿度等环境因子的关联性，并对关联性的时空动态进行了评估。手足口病发病率与各环境因素的相关系数为-0.056~0.36（均P <0.05）。各因素对手足口病发病的贡献率分别为16.32%、12.31%、14.61%、13.53%和2.63%。包括植被指数在内的所有环境因素（相对风险：0.889;可信区间：0.883 - 0.895），人工表面（1.028; 1.022 - 1.034），道路通行能力（1.033; 1.028 - 1.038），温度（1.039; 1.028 - 1.05）和相对湿度（1.015; 1.01 - 1.021）在最终时空模型中被统计学保留。环境因素与手足口病发病的关系更为复杂。综合考虑这些环境因素制定防治策略具有重要的现实意义。
Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) remains a significant public health and economic burden in parts of China, particularly Guangdong Province. Although the association between meteorological factors and HFMD has been well documented, significant gaps remain in our understanding of the potential impact of environmental factors. Using county-level monthly HFMD data from China CDC and environmental data from multiple sources, we used spatiotemporal Bayesian models to evaluate the association between HFMD and environmental factors including vegetation index, proportion of artificial surface, road capacity, temperature and humidity, and assessed the spatial and temporal dynamic of the association. Statistically significant correlation coefficients from −0.056 to 0.36 (allP< 0.05) were found between HFMD incidence and all environmental factors. The contributions of these factors for HFMD incidence were estimated to be 16.32%, 12.31%, 14.61%, 13.53%, and 2.63%. All environmental factors including vegetation index (Relative Risk: 0.889; Credible Interval: 0.883–0.895), artificial surface (1.028; 1.022–1.034), road capacity (1.033; 1.028–1.038), temperature (1.039; 1.028–1.05), and relative humidity (1.015; 1.01–1.021) were statistically retained in the final spatiotemporal model. More comprehensive environmental factors were identified as associating with HFMD incidence. Taking these environmental factors into consideration for prevention and control strategy might be of great practical significance.
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影响因子：
10.4
作者：
Dadvand P;de Nazelle A;Triguero-Mas M;Schembari A;Cirach M;Amoly E;Figueras F;Basagaña X;Ostro B;Nieuwenhuijsen M
通讯作者：
Nieuwenhuijsen M
DOI：
10.1111/rssc.12155
发表时间：
2017-01-01
影响因子：
1.6
作者：
Rushworth, Alastair;Lee, Duncan;Sarran, Christophe
通讯作者：
Sarran, Christophe
评估环境和社会经济因素对手足口病发病影响的时空混合模型
影响因子：
4.5
作者：
Li L;Qiu W;Xu C;Wang J
通讯作者：
Wang J
影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Morse SS
通讯作者：
Morse SS
影响因子：
56.3
作者：
Xing, Weijia;Liao, Qiaohong;Viboud, Cecile;Zhang, Jing;Sun, Junling;Wu, Joseph T.;Chang, Zhaorui;Liu, Fengfeng;Fang, Vicky J.;Zheng, Yingdong;Cowling, Benjamin J.;Varma, Jay K.;Farrar, Jeremy J.;Leung, Gabriel M.;Yu, Hongjie
通讯作者：
Yu, Hongjie