Toward flood risk prediction: a statistical approach using a 29-year river discharge simulation over Japan
Toward flood risk prediction: a statistical approach using a 29-year river discharge simulation over Japan
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洪水风险预测：使用日本 29 年河流流量模拟的统计方法
DOI：
10.3178/hrl.2.22
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发表时间：
2008
影响因子：
1.1
通讯作者：
S. Seto
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Yoshimura;T. Sakimura;T. Oki;S. Kanae;S. Seto
提出了一种考虑模型偏差和不确定性的统计方法，用于将模拟的河流流量解释为洪水风险。进行了长达29年的模拟，以估计极值放电概率的冈贝尔分布参数。估算的放电概率指数(DPI)与观测值有明显的一致性。更引人注目的是，模拟中的高DPI与实际的洪水破坏记录相对应。这表明，对DPI的实时模拟可能会提供洪水警告。本文还提出了一种应用相同的统计方法进行实时洪水风险预测的方法，该方法通过使用现有的长期模拟来估计统计参数，从而克服了缺乏足够长的模拟数据的问题。使用2003年和2004年业务天气预报数据进行的初步洪水风险预测结果与2004年10月20日台风托卡奇(T0423)事件长达29年的模拟结果相似，表明该技术可转移到实时预测，这是不同偏向的。
A statistical approach that considers the bias and uncertainty of models is proposed for interpreting the simulated river discharge as a flood risk. A 29-year simulation was performed to estimate parameters of the Gumbel distribution for the probability of extreme discharge. The estimated discharge probability index (DPI) showed clear agreement with observed values. Even more strikingly, high DPI in the simulation corresponded to actual flood damage records. This indicates that the real-time simulation of the DPI could potentially provide flood warnings. This paper also suggests an application using the same statistical method for real-time flood risk prediction that overcomes the lack of sufficiently long simulation data through the use of a pre-existing long-term simulation to estimate statistical parameters. A preliminary flood risk prediction that used operational weather forecast data for 2003 and 2004 gave results similar to those of the 29-year simulation for the Typhoon Tokage (T0423) event on October 20th 2004, demonstrating the transferability of the technique to real-time prediction, which is differently biased.
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
Takata, K;Emori, S;Watanabe, T
通讯作者：
Watanabe, T