Cold surge: a sudden and spatially varying threat to health?

Cold surge: a sudden and spatially varying threat to health?
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DOI:
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2008.12.044
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发表时间:
2009-05-01
影响因子:
9.8
通讯作者:
Su, Huey-Jen
Su, Huey-Jen
中科院分区:
环境科学与生态学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Yang, Tse-Chuan;Wu, Pei-Chih;Chen, Vivian Yi-Ju;Su, Huey-Jen

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虽然寒潮是东亚冬季风最显着的特征之一,但其对人类健康的影响仍未得到充分研究。根据台湾中央气象局的定义,我们识别了2000年至2003年期间的四次寒潮,并收集了这些事件发生前两周和事后两周的心血管疾病死亡率数据。我们试图回答以下研究问题:1)寒潮是否会对心血管死亡率产生不利且直接的影响? 2)生活在温带地区的人们是否比亚热带地区的人们对极端气温下降的耐受性更高。通过地理加权技术,我们不仅发现寒潮过后心血管疾病死亡率显着上升,而且还发现了对寒潮的耐受性的空间差异模式。即使在台湾这样的小研究区域内,人类对恶劣天气下降的反应也因空间而异。不用说,在美国,当发生极端气温下降时,在调整政策以解决生活在温暖地区的人口问题时应考虑这些发现。
While cold surge is one of the most conspicuous features of the winter monsoon in East Asia, its impact on human health remains underexplored. Based on the definition by the Central Weather Bureau in Taiwan, we identified four cold surges between 2000 and 2003 and collected the cardiovascular disease mortality data two weeks before and two weeks after these events. We attempted to answer the following research questions: 1) whether the cold surges impose an adverse and immediate effect on cardiovascular mortality; 2) whether the people living in temperate zones have a higher tolerance of extreme temperature drop than do those in the subtropics. With geographic weighting techniques, we not only found that the cardiovascular disease mortality rates increased significantly after the cold surges, but also discovered a spatially varying pattern of tolerance to cold surges. Even within a small study area such as Taiwan, human reaction to severe weather drop differs across space. Needless to say, in the U.S., these findings should be considered in redirecting policy to address populations living in warm places when extreme temperature drops occur.
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