Transmission dynamics of lyssavirus in Myotis myotis: mechanistic modelling study based on longitudinal seroprevalence data.
Transmission dynamics of lyssavirus in Myotis myotis: mechanistic modelling study based on longitudinal seroprevalence data.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2023.0183
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发表时间：
2023-04-26
影响因子：
4.7
通讯作者：
Nouvellet, Pierre
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kim, Younjung;Leopardi, Stefania;Scaravelli, Dino;Zecchin, Barbara;Priori, Pamela;Festa, Francesca;Drzewniokova, Petra;De Benedictis, Paola;Nouvellet, Pierre
我们利用2015-2022年从意大利北部教堂的两个孕妇群体收集的血清学、病毒学、人口学和生态学数据，调查了溶沙病毒在Myotis myotis和Myotis blythii中的传播动态。尽管通过逆转录-聚合酶链式反应(RT-PCR)在11个事件的556只蝙蝠中没有检测到溶酶病毒，但在27个事件的837只蝙蝠中，36.3%的蝙蝠显示出对欧洲蝙蝠溶病病毒1的中和抗体，夏季显著增加。通过将一组机制模型与血清流行率数据进行拟合，我们调查了影响溶状病毒在年内和年间传播的因素。最终选择了五个模型作为一组最终模型：在一个模型中，一部分暴露的蝙蝠(模型估计中值：5.8%)感染并死亡，而其他暴露的蝙蝠在免疫恢复后没有感染；在其他四个模型中，所有暴露的蝙蝠都感染了，并通过免疫恢复。最终的模型支持这两个群体经历了季节性暴发，原因是：(I)免疫损失，特别是在冬眠期间，(Ii)依赖密度的传播，以及(Iii)同步分娩后的高传播率。这些发现突显了了解生态因素的重要性，包括菌落大小和同步分娩时间，以及潜在的感染异质性，以便能够更有力地评估溶血病毒溢出风险。
We investigated the transmission dynamics of lyssavirus in Myotis myotis and Myotis blythii, using serological, virological, demographic and ecological data collected between 2015 and 2022 from two maternity colonies in northern Italian churches. Despite no lyssavirus detection in 556 bats sampled over 11 events by reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), 36.3% of 837 bats sampled over 27 events showed neutralizing antibodies to European bat lyssavirus 1, with a significant increase in summers. By fitting sets of mechanistic models to seroprevalence data, we investigated factors that influenced lyssavirus transmission within and between years. Five models were selected as a group of final models: in one model, a proportion of exposed bats (median model estimate: 5.8%) became infectious and died while the other exposed bats recovered with immunity without becoming infectious; in the other four models, all exposed bats became infectious and recovered with immunity. The final models supported that the two colonies experienced seasonal outbreaks driven by: (i) immunity loss particularly during hibernation, (ii) density-dependent transmission, and (iii) a high transmission rate after synchronous birthing. These findings highlight the importance of understanding ecological factors, including colony size and synchronous birthing timing, and potential infection heterogeneities to enable more robust assessments of lyssavirus spillover risk.
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影响因子：
11.8
作者：
Drexler JF;Corman VM;Wegner T;Tateno AF;Zerbinati RM;Gloza-Rausch F;Seebens A;Müller MA;Drosten C
通讯作者：
Drosten C
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Amengual, Blanca;Bourhy, Herve;Lopez-Roig, Marc;Serra-Cobo, Jordi
通讯作者：
Serra-Cobo, Jordi
影响因子：
3.9
作者：
IRWIN, DM;KOCHER, TD;WILSON, AC
通讯作者：
WILSON, AC
影响因子：
2
作者：
Arlettaz, R;Ruedi, M;Hausser, J
通讯作者：
Hausser, J
影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Colombi, Davide;Serra-Cobo, Jordi;Colizza, Vittoria
通讯作者：
Colizza, Vittoria