Drug-related deaths in Scotland 1979-2013: evidence of a vulnerable cohort of young men living in deprived areas.
Drug-related deaths in Scotland 1979-2013: evidence of a vulnerable cohort of young men living in deprived areas.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12889-018-5267-2
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发表时间：
2018-03-27
影响因子：
4.5
通讯作者：
McCartney G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Parkinson J;Minton J;Lewsey J;Bouttell J;McCartney G
即使将贫困因素考虑在内，苏格兰的死亡率也高于西欧其他地区。与酒精和毒品有关的死亡、暴力和自杀（特别是年轻人）造成的较高死亡率是造成这种“超额”死亡率的原因。年龄阶段和群体效应分别有助于解释与酒精有关的死亡和自杀的趋势。本研究调查了年龄、时期或队列效应是否可以解释苏格兰drd的近期趋势，并与20世纪80年代以来不断变化的政治背景有关。我们使用阴影轮廓图和固有估计回归模型分析了1979年至2013年的DRDs数据，以确定和量化相对年龄、时期和队列效应。drd的高峰年龄在1990年左右下降，尤其是男性，因为18至45岁的人群发病率上升。有证据表明存在群体效应，尤其是生活在最贫困地区的男性；1960年至1980年间出生的人患DRD的风险增加，1970年至1975年出生的人患DRD的风险最高。与其他人口相比，最贫困地区的群体效应大约早十年开始。由于1960年至1980年间出生的人群患DRD的风险增加，尤其是生活在最贫困地区的男性，苏格兰年轻人中DRD的年龄标准化率在20世纪90年代上升。这一群体效应与1980年代不断变化的社会、经济和政治环境造成延迟的负面健康影响的假设是一致的。本文的在线版本（10.1186/s12889-018-5267-2）包含补充材料，授权用户可使用。
Even after accounting for deprivation, mortality rates are higher in Scotland relative to the rest of Western Europe. Higher mortality from alcohol- and drug-related deaths (DRDs), violence and suicide (particularly in young adults) contribute to this ‘excess’ mortality. Age-period and cohort effects help explain the trends in alcohol-related deaths and suicide, respectively. This study investigated whether age, period or cohort effects might explain recent trends in DRDs in Scotland and relate to exposure to the changing political context from the 1980s. We analysed data on DRDs from 1979 to 2013 by sex and deprivation using shaded contour plots and intrinsic estimator regression modelling to identify and quantify relative age, period and cohort effects. The peak age for DRDs fell around 1990, especially for males as rates increased for those aged 18 to 45 years. There was evidence of a cohort effect, especially among males living in the most deprived areas; those born between 1960 and 1980 had an increased risk of DRD, highest for those born 1970 to 1975. The cohort effect started around a decade earlier in the most deprived areas compared to the rest of the population. Age-standardised rates for DRDs among young adults rose during the 1990s in Scotland due to an increased risk of DRD for the cohort born between 1960 and 1980, especially for males living in the most deprived areas. This cohort effect is consistent with the hypothesis that exposure to the changing social, economic and political contexts of the 1980s created a delayed negative health impact. The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-018-5267-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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苏格兰一直是欧洲的“病人”？ 1855年至2006年的观察性研究。
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
McCartney G;Walsh D;Whyte B;Collins C
通讯作者：
Collins C
影响因子：
5.2
作者：
McCartney, G.;Collins, C.;Batty, G. D.
通讯作者：
Batty, G. D.
影响因子：
5.4
作者：
Galea, S;Ahern, J;Karpati, A
通讯作者：
Karpati, A
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Hanlon, P;Lawder, RS;Chalmers, J
通讯作者：
Chalmers, J
影响因子：
4.2
作者：
Keyes KM;Miech R
通讯作者：
Miech R