Estimating wildlife disease dynamics in complex systems using an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework.
Estimating wildlife disease dynamics in complex systems using an Approximate Bayesian Computation framework.
复制标题
使用近似贝叶斯计算框架估计复杂系统中的野生动物疾病动态。
DOI：
10.1890/14-1808
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Packer
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Kosmala;P. Miller;Sam M. Ferreira;P. Funston;D. Keet;C. Packer
野生动物的新发传染病日益受到管理人员和保护政策制定者的关注，但由于宿主疾病系统的复杂性和经验数据的缺乏，往往难以研究和预测。尽管关于该疾病对狮子的影响的经验数据有限，但我们展示了使用近似贝叶斯计算统计框架来重建克鲁格国家公园狮子种群中牛结核病的疾病动态。建模结果表明，虽然狮子种群中的很大一部分将感染牛结核病，但狮子是一个溢出宿主，很常见的是长时间的疾病潜伏期。在没有未来恶化因素的情况下，预计牛结核病将导致狮子数量在未来50年内下降约3%，种群稳定在这个新的平衡。近似贝叶斯计算框架是一种新的野生动物管理工具。它允许在复杂的系统中对新出现的传染病进行建模，通过整合关于宿主人口统计、行为和异质疾病传播的不同知识，同时允许对未知系统参数进行推断。
Emerging infectious diseases of wildlife are of increasing concern to managers and conservation policy makers, but are often difficult to study and predict due to the complexity of host-disease systems and a paucity of empirical data. We demonstrate the use of an Approximate Bayesian Computation statistical framework to reconstruct the disease dynamics of bovine tuberculosis in Kruger National Park's lion population, despite limited empirical data on the disease's effects in lions. The modeling results suggest that, while a large proportion of the lion population will become infected with bovine tuberculosis, lions are a spillover host and long disease latency is common. In the absence of future aggravating factors, bovine tuberculosis is projected to cause a lion population decline of ~3% over the next 50 years, with the population stabilizing at this new equilibrium. The Approximate Bayesian Computation framework is a new tool for wildlife managers. It allows emerging infectious diseases to be modeled in complex systems by incorporating disparate knowledge about host demographics, behavior, and heterogeneous disease transmission, while allowing inference of unknown system parameters.
影响因子：
10.7
作者：
Pritchard, JK;Seielstad, MT;Feldman, MW
通讯作者：
Feldman, MW
影响因子：
2.7
作者：
Beaumont, Mark A.;Cornuet, Jean-Marie;Robert, Christian P.
通讯作者：
Robert, Christian P.