A Health Policy Simulation Model of Smallpox and Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever
A Health Policy Simulation Model of Smallpox and Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever
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DOI：
10.1007/978-3-319-19728-9_34
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发表时间：
2015-05-19
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Terano T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kurahashi S;Terano T
本研究提出了一种基于天花、埃博拉出血热和卫生政策博弈的新型传染病模拟模型。SIR（易感、感染、恢复）模型已被广泛用于分析传染病，如流感、天花、生物恐怖主义等。另一方面，基于agent的模型或基于个人的模型近年来开始流行。该模型能够在计算机中表示每个人的行为。它还通过模拟模型中人与人之间的接触过程来揭示感染的传播。本研究在Epstein模型的基础上设计了一个模型，该模型决定了疫苗储备、抗病毒药物储备、医务人员参与感染控制措施的数量等多项卫生政策。此外，该模型还对尚未有有效疫苗的埃博拉出血热进行了感染模拟。利用该模型进行的实验结果表明，预防疫苗、抗病毒药物库存和医务人员数量是预防疫情传播的关键因素。此外，还设计了一种针对新型传染病的卫生政策游戏作为严肃游戏。
This study proposes a simulation model of a new type of infectious disease based on smallpox, Ebola haemorrhagic fever and a health policy Game. SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) model has been widely used to analyse infectious diseases such as influenza, smallpox, bioterrorism, to name a few. On the other hand, Agent-based model or Individual-based model begins to spread in recent years. The model enables to represent behaviour of each person in the computer. It also reveals the spread of an infection by simulation of the contact process among people in the model. The study designs a model based on Epstein’s model in which several health policies are decided such as vaccine stocks, antiviral medicine stocks, the number of medical staff to infection control measures and so on. Furthermore, infectious simulation of Ebola haemorrhagic fever, which has not yet any effective vaccine, is also implemented in the model. As results of experiments using the model, it has been found that preventive vaccine, antiviral medicine stocks and the number of medical staff are crucial factors to prevent the spread. In addition, a health policy game against a new type of infectious disease is designed as a serious game.
影响因子：
56.3
作者：
Lofgren, Eric T.;Fefferman, Nina H.
通讯作者：
Fefferman, Nina H.
影响因子：
8.4
作者：
Longini, Ira M., Jr.;Halloran, M. Elizabeth;Epstein, Joshua M.
通讯作者：
Epstein, Joshua M.
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Burke, Donald S.;Epstein, Joshua M.;Chakravarty, Shubha
通讯作者：
Chakravarty, Shubha