Simple Estimates of Polar Amplification in Moist Diffusive Energy Balance Models
Simple Estimates of Polar Amplification in Moist Diffusive Energy Balance Models
复制标题
潮湿扩散能量平衡模型中极性放大的简单估计
作者：
T. Merlis;M. Henry
扩散能量平衡模型使用湿静态能量而不是温度作为热力学变量来确定能量传输，为理解辐射强迫地表变暖的模式提供了一个理想的框架。这些模式具有极地放大的变暖模式，在数量上与大气环流模式模拟相似。即使没有地表反照率的变化或其他空间变化的反馈，他们也模拟了极地放大，这是由于气候变暖导致向极地的能量传输增加所致。在这里，我们给出了两个不需要数值解EBM控制方程的极化放大的估计。它们是相对于湿EBM数值解的结果进行评估的。一种估计只考虑了湿热力学量的变化(假设能量传输的增加导致气候变暖时湿静态能量在空间上的均匀变化)，并且比EBM解有更多的极性放大。另一种估计使用了湿EBM方程的截断形式的新解，该方程允许温度变化与干能和潜能输送变化以及辐射变化相一致。截断的EBM解提供了与数值EBM解几乎相同的对极点放大的估计，并且仅取决于EBM参数和温度的气候。这一解揭示了极地放大对气候温度分布的依赖关系，并提供了太阳辐射管理地球工程气候中剩余极地变暖的估计。
Diffusive energy balance models (EBMs) that use moist static energy, rather than temperature, as the thermodynamic variable to determine the energy transport provide an idealized framework to understand the pattern of radiatively forced surface warming. These models have a polar amplified warming pattern that is quantitatively similar to general circulation model simulations. Even without surface albedo changes or other spatially varying feedbacks, they simulate polar amplification that results from increased poleward energy transport with warming. Here, two estimates for polar amplification are presented that do not require numerical solution of the EBM governing equation. They are evaluated relative to the results of numerical moist EBM solutions. One estimate considers only changes in a moist thermodynamic quantity (assuming that the increase in energy transport results in a spatially uniform change in moist static energy in the warmed climate) and has more polar amplification than the EBM solution. The other estimate uses a new solution of a truncated form of the moist EBM equation, which allows for a temperature change that is consistent with both the dry and latent energy transport changes, as well as radiative changes. The truncated EBM solution provides an estimate for polar amplification that is nearly identical to that of the numerical EBM solution and only depends on the EBM parameters and climatology of temperature. This solution sheds light on the dependence of polar amplification on the climatological temperature distribution and offers an estimate of the residual polar warming in solar radiation management geoengineered climates.
影响因子：
4.4
作者：
Kravitz, Ben;Caldeira, Ken;Yoon, Jin-Ho
通讯作者：
Yoon, Jin-Ho