Modeling and Risk Analysis of Chemical Terrorist Attacks: A Bayesian Network Method
Modeling and Risk Analysis of Chemical Terrorist Attacks: A Bayesian Network Method
复制标题
化学恐怖袭击的建模和风险分析：贝叶斯网络方法
DOI：
10.3390/ijerph17062051
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发表时间：
2020-03
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Jia Nan
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Zhu Rongchen;Hu Xiaofeng;Li Xin;Ye Han;Jia Nan
化武恐怖袭击是一种影响范围大、隐蔽性强、技术手段高、后果严重的非常规恐怖主义形式。化学恐怖主义风险是指恐怖组织使用有毒工业化学品/药物和经典化学武器袭击人口的影响的不确定性。影响化学恐怖主义风险的风险因素有多种，如恐怖组织的威胁程度、目标的吸引力、城市应急响应能力、警察防御能力等。我们构建了化学恐怖袭击的贝叶斯网络进行风险分析。运用情景分析和敏感性分析对模型进行验证，分析关键因素对化学恐怖袭击风险的影响。结果表明，该模型可用于化学恐怖袭击的模拟和风险分析。在控制化学恐怖袭击的风险方面，巡逻和监视不如安全检查和警方调查重要。安全检查是降低攻击成功概率的最有效方法。不同的恐怖组织具有不同程度的威胁，但其影响仅限于袭击的成功。武器类型和剂量对伤亡很敏感，但影响伤亡变化的是应急反应能力水平。由于防御资源有限，为了达到最佳效果，防御资源的部署应优先考虑政府建筑，其次是商业区域。研究结果可为公安部门的安全防范决策和风险管理部门的安全防范决策提供理论依据和方法支持。
The chemical terrorist attack is an unconventional form of terrorism with vast scope of influence, strong concealment, high technical means and severe consequences. Chemical terrorism risk refers to the uncertainty of the effects of terrorist organisations using toxic industrial chemicals/drugs and classic chemical weapons to attack the population. There are multiple risk factors infecting chemical terrorism risk, such as the threat degree of terrorist organisations, attraction of targets, city emergency response capabilities, and police defense capabilities. We have constructed a Bayesian network of chemical terrorist attacks to conduct risk analysis. The scenario analysis and sensitivity analysis are applied to validate the model and analyse the impact of the vital factor on the risk of chemical terrorist attacks. The results show that the model can be used for simulation and risk analysis of chemical terrorist attacks. In terms of controlling the risk of chemical terrorist attack, patrol and surveillance are less critical than security checks and police investigations. Security check is the most effective approach to decrease the probability of successful attacks. Different terrorist organisations have different degrees of threat, but the impacts of which are limited to the success of the attack. Weapon types and doses are sensitive to casualties, but it is the level of emergency response capabilities that dominates the changes in casualties. Due to the limited number of defensive resources, to get the best consequence, the priority of the deployment of defensive sources should be firstly given to governmental buildings, followed by commercial areas. These findings may provide the theoretical basis and method support for the combat of the public security department and the safety prevention decision of the risk management department.
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影响因子：
1.9
作者：
Jeong, Hyo-Joon;Hwang, Won-Tae;Han, Moon Hee
通讯作者：
Han, Moon Hee
DOI：
10.7249/mr1731
发表时间：
2003
期刊：
2022 Australian & New Zealand Control Conference (ANZCC)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Lynn E. Davis;T. LaTourrette;David E. Mosher;Lois M. Davis;David R. Howell
通讯作者：
Lynn E. Davis;T. LaTourrette;David E. Mosher;Lois M. Davis;David R. Howell
DOI：
10.1089/bsp.2005.3.268
发表时间：
2006
期刊：
Journal of The Royal Society for The Promotion of Health
影响因子：
--
作者：
Bruce
通讯作者：
Bruce
影响因子：
1.2
作者：
H. Zerrouki;H. Smadi
通讯作者：
H. Zerrouki;H. Smadi
基于贝叶斯网络的矿井突水灾害情景分析
影响因子：
6.1
作者：
Wu, Jiansong;Xu, Shengdi;Qin, Yueping
通讯作者：
Qin, Yueping