The Impact of Rural Electrification: Challenges and Ways Forward
The Impact of Rural Electrification: Challenges and Ways Forward
复制标题
农村电气化的影响：挑战和前进的道路
DOI：
10.3917/edd.hs03.0049
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发表时间：
2014
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
M. Torero
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
M. Torero
严格的影响评估，包括适当选择的控制组必须是农村电气化计划设计的一部分。在早期阶段开展评价活动并与评价人员接触，可提高获得高质量评价设计的可能性;此外，如果在设计阶段之后出现偏差，评价人员可以更好地调整设计，以便影响结果为决策者和未来的方案设计者提供信息。另一个要点是使用统一的框架来指定预期的结果和影响的合理大小。如果在方案开始时就这样做，这将为决策者应该参与的讨论提供背景（例如，他们是否应该把重点放在健康利益或向农村家庭传播信息运动的潜力上）。这些观点主要集中在内部有效性上，但我们也需要关注外部有效性。大规模的农村电气化计划将提供一个机会，以测试小规模影响评估的结果是否适用于其他环境。到目前为止，我们还没有强调，但必须记住的是，提供不同类型的基础设施是相辅相成的。大型项目可以提供一个机会，探索与其他基础设施项目的互补性，如移动的电话、道路通道和改善的水和卫生设施。在决定向农村地区，特别是向农村贫困家庭提供何种基础设施时，它们可以说明哪些是最能增进福利的政策选择。最后，我们重申需要使用一个目标函数，在决定将电气化计划放置在哪里时，可以撒下更大的网。只关注成本最小化可能会导致错失机会。在决定在农村地区何处部署电网时，必须考虑到潜在的利润，特别是这些地区的农业潜力。通过使用所述的等利润和成本最小化框架，农村电气化方案有机会接触到更多的贫困家庭，并通过提供新的机会和加强农业和非农业部门之间的协同作用，对农村贫困人口的生活产生更大的影响。
Rigorous impact evaluation that includes appropriately selected control groups must be a part of rural electrification program designs. Budgeting evaluation activities and engaging with evaluators at an early stage improves to likelihood of having a high quality evaluation design; plus, if deviations occur after the design stage, the evaluators are better prepared to adjust the design so that the impact results remain informative to policy makers and future program designers. Another takeaway is to use unified framework to specify the expected outcomes and the plausible sizes of impacts. If done at the beginning of the program, this will provide context to the kind of discussion that policy makers should engage in (e.g. if they should focus on health benefits or the potential to diffuse information campaigns to rural households). These points focus mostly on internal validity, but we also need to focus on external validity as well. Large scale rural electrification programs will provide an opportunity to test if the results from small scale impact evaluations translate to other settings. Something we have not stressed so far but that is important to keep in mind are the complementarities in the provision of different type of infrastructure. Large projects can provide an opportunity to explore complementarities with other infrastructure programs, such as mobile telephony, road access, and improved water and sanitation access. They can shed light on what are the most welfare-enhancing policy options when deciding what types of infrastructure to provide in rural areas, and especially to poor rural households. Finally, we reiterate the need to use an objective function that casts a wider net when deciding where to place electrification programs. Focusing solely on cost minimization can result in missed opportunities. When deciding where to deploy the electric grid in rural areas it is imperative to take into account the potential profits, specifically the agricultural potential of these areas. By using the isoprofit and cost minimization framework described, rural electrification programs have the opportunity to reach more poor households and have larger impacts in the lives of the rural poor by providing new opportunities and enhancing the synergies between the agricultural and non-agricultural sector.JEL Classification: O13, O38, Q56.
影响因子：
9
作者：
Kanagawa, Makoto;Nakata, Toshihiko
通讯作者：
Nakata, Toshihiko