Estimating incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes using prevalence data: the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study.
Estimating incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes using prevalence data: the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study.
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DOI：
10.1186/s12874-023-01862-3
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发表时间：
2023-02-14
影响因子：
4
通讯作者：
Imperatore G
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Hoyer A;Brinks R;Tönnies T;Saydah SH;D'Agostino RB Jr;Divers J;Isom S;Dabelea D;Lawrence JM;Mayer-Davis EJ;Pihoker C;Dolan L;Imperatore G
Incidence is one of the most important epidemiologic indices in surveillance. However, determining incidence is complex and requires time-consuming cohort studies or registries with date of diagnosis. Estimating incidence from prevalence using mathematical relationships may facilitate surveillance efforts. The aim of this study was to examine whether a partial differential equation (PDE) can be used to estimate diabetes incidence from prevalence in youth. We used age-, sex-, and race/ethnicity-specific estimates of prevalence in 2001 and 2009 as reported in the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth study. Using these data, a PDE was applied to estimate the average incidence rates of type 1 and type 2 diabetes for the period between 2001 and 2009. Estimates were compared to annual incidence rates observed in SEARCH. Precision of the estimates was evaluated using 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. Despite the long period between prevalence measures, the estimated average incidence rates mirror the average of the observed annual incidence rates. Absolute values of the age-standardized sex- and type-specific mean relative errors are below 8%. Incidence of diabetes can be accurately estimated from prevalence. Since only cross-sectional prevalence data is required, employing this methodology in future studies may result in considerable cost savings. The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12874-023-01862-3.
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影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Toennies, T.;Roeckl, S.;Brinks, R.
通讯作者：
Brinks, R.
影响因子：
1.4
作者：
Brinks, Ralph;Landwehr, Sandra
通讯作者：
Landwehr, Sandra
影响因子：
120.7
作者：
Dabelea, Dana;Mayer-Davis, Elizabeth J.;Saydah, Sharon;Imperatore, Giuseppina;Linder, Barbara;Divers, Jasmin;Bell, Ronny;Badaru, Angela;Talton, Jennifer W.;Crume, Tessa;Liese, Angela D.;Merchant, Anwar T.;Lawrence, Jean M.;Reynolds, Kristi;Dolan, Lawrence;Liu, Lenna L.;Hamman, Richard F.
通讯作者：
Hamman, Richard F.
DOI：
10.1016/s2468-2667(17)30074-9
发表时间：
2017-06
期刊：
The Lancet. Public health
影响因子：
--
作者：
Kivimäki M;Kuosma E;Ferrie JE;Luukkonen R;Nyberg ST;Alfredsson L;Batty GD;Brunner EJ;Fransson E;Goldberg M;Knutsson A;Koskenvuo M;Nordin M;Oksanen T;Pentti J;Rugulies R;Shipley MJ;Singh-Manoux A;Steptoe A;Suominen SB;Theorell T;Vahtera J;Virtanen M;Westerholm P;Westerlund H;Zins M;Hamer M;Bell JA;Tabak AG;Jokela M
通讯作者：
Jokela M
影响因子：
2
作者：
Landwehr, Sandra;Brinks, Ralph
通讯作者：
Brinks, Ralph