Who escapes detection? Quantifying the causes and consequences of sampling biases in a long-term field study.
Who escapes detection? Quantifying the causes and consequences of sampling biases in a long-term field study.
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谁能逃脱检测？
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2656.12411
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发表时间：
2015
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Kidd LR
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kidd LR
从长期的实地研究得出的推论容易受到不同类别的个体的可观察性的偏差的影响，这可能导致选择或适应性估计的偏差。监测繁殖个体的人口调查可能会引入这种偏差，因为它没有识别出在早期繁殖尝试中失败的个体。在这里，我们量化了检测繁殖雌性的标准方案如何在大山雀的长期种群研究中引入偏倚。我们这样做，确定女性的繁殖尝试失败之前，他们通常会被普查，并探讨是否可以预测这种早期失败的一些内在和外在因素。我们研究了这些偏差对繁殖性能和选择估计的影响。我们发现，由于在繁殖尝试早期失败而未被标准普查发现的雌性动物，以前被困在我们研究地点的可能性较小，更有可能在质量较差的栖息地繁殖。此外，我们表明，这种偏见抽样导致以前的研究，这个人口高估了生殖性能的unringed女性，这是可能的移民人口。最后，我们表明，这些偏差的可检测性影响选择的估计对一个关键的生活史trait.While这些结论是特定于本研究，我们认为，这种影响可能是广泛的，应该给予更多的关注是否或不调查自然种群的方法引入系统性偏差，将影响生态和进化过程的结论。
Inferences drawn from long‐term field studies are vulnerable to biases in observability of different classes of individuals, which may lead to biases in the estimates of selection, or fitness.Population surveys that monitor breeding individuals can introduce such biases by not identifying individuals that fail early in their reproductive attempts.Here, we quantify how the standard protocol for detecting breeding females introduces bias in a long‐term population study of the great tit,Parus major. We do so by identifying females whose breeding attempts fail before they would normally be censused and explore whether this early failure can be predicted by a number of intrinsic and extrinsic factors. We investigate the effect of these biases on estimates of reproductive performance and selection.We show that females that go undetected by standard censusing because they fail early in their breeding attempt were less likely to have been previously trapped within our study site and were more likely to breed in poor‐quality habitats. Furthermore, we demonstrate that this bias sampling had lead previous studies on this population to overestimate the reproductive performance of unringed females, which are likely to be immigrants to the population. Finally, we show that these biases in detectability influence estimates of selection on a key life‐history trait.While these conclusions are specific to this study, we suggest that such effects are likely to be widespread and that more attention should be given to whether or not methods for surveying natural populations introduce systematic bias that will influence conclusions about ecological and evolutionary processes.
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影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Gienapp P;Bregnballe T
通讯作者：
Bregnballe T
出生环境对生活史影响持续存在的性别差异
影响因子：
9.2
作者：
T. Wilkin;B. Sheldon
通讯作者：
B. Sheldon
影响因子：
16.6
作者：
Korsten, Peter;van Overveld, Thijs;Matthysen, Erik
通讯作者：
Matthysen, Erik
影响因子：
3.4
作者：
Crespin, L;Verhagen, R;Lebreton, JD
通讯作者：
Lebreton, JD
影响因子：
1.7
作者：
Crespin, Laurent;Choquet, Remi;Pradel, Roger
通讯作者：
Pradel, Roger