Neglecting rice milling yield and quality underestimates economic losses from high-temperature stress.
Neglecting rice milling yield and quality underestimates economic losses from high-temperature stress.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0072157
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发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Siebenmorgen T
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lyman NB;Jagadish KS;Nalley LL;Dixon BL;Siebenmorgen T
未来全球地表温度的上升将威胁到全世界那些依靠稻米生产维持生计和粮食安全的人。过去对高温胁迫对水稻生产的分析主要集中在水稻产量上，没有考虑到高温对碾磨质量结果的不利影响，而碾磨质量最终决定了食用（可销售）水稻产量和市场价值。利用来自美国阿肯色州的六个常见水稻品种的基因型特定水稻产量和碾磨品质数据，结合现场、半小时和每日温度观察，我们表明高温胁迫暴露对产量的非线性影响和碾磨品质。生长季平均温度每升高1 ° C，水稻产量减少6.2%，总精米产量减少7.1%至8.0%，整精米产量减少9.0%至13.8%，总碾磨收入减少8.1%至11.0%。我们的研究结果表明，未能考虑到碾磨质量的变化导致低估了高温对水稻生产结果的影响。造成这些巨大损失的原因是稻谷产量减少，垩白和碎粒的百分比增加，这些因素共同降低了精米的数量和市场价值。最近公布的估计数据显示，由于气温上升，南亚和东南亚主要水稻产区的水稻产量减少了10%。我们的研究结果表明，经常被引用的10%的数字低估了气候变化对稻米生产者的经济影响，从而可能威胁到全球稻米生产者和消费者未来的粮食安全。
Future increases in global surface temperature threaten those worldwide who depend on rice production for their livelihoods and food security. Past analyses of high-temperature stress on rice production have focused on paddy yield and have failed to account for the detrimental impact of high temperatures on milling quality outcomes, which ultimately determine edible (marketable) rice yield and market value. Using genotype specific rice yield and milling quality data on six common rice varieties from Arkansas, USA, combined with on-site, half-hourly and daily temperature observations, we show a nonlinear effect of high-temperature stress exposure on yield and milling quality. A 1°C increase in average growing season temperature reduces paddy yield by 6.2%, total milled rice yield by 7.1% to 8.0%, head rice yield by 9.0% to 13.8%, and total milling revenue by 8.1% to 11.0%, across genotypes. Our results indicate that failure to account for changes in milling quality leads to understatement of the impacts of high temperatures on rice production outcomes. These dramatic losses result from reduced paddy yield and increased percentages of chalky and broken kernels, which together decrease the quantity and market value of milled rice. Recently published estimates show paddy yield reductions of up to 10% across the major rice-producing regions of South and Southeast Asia due to rising temperatures. The results of our study suggest that the often-cited 10% figure underestimates the economic implications of climate change for rice producers, thus potentially threatening future food security for global rice producers and consumers.
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影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Lobell, David B.;Sibley, Adam;Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, J.
通讯作者：
Ivan Ortiz-Monasterio, J.
影响因子：
6.9
作者：
Jagadish SV;Muthurajan R;Oane R;Wheeler TR;Heuer S;Bennett J;Craufurd PQ
通讯作者：
Craufurd PQ
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Ambardekar, Amogh A.;Siebenmorgen, Terry J.;Mauromoustakos, Andronikos
通讯作者：
Mauromoustakos, Andronikos
DOI：
10.1061/(asce)0733-9437(1995)121:2(191
发表时间：
1995-03-01
影响因子：
2.6
作者：
HOWELL, TA;DUSEK, DA
通讯作者：
DUSEK, DA
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
Lobell, David B.;Ortiz-Monasterio, J. Ivan
通讯作者：
Ortiz-Monasterio, J. Ivan