Predicting the potential distribution of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) infestation in New Zealand, using maximum entropy-based ecological niche modelling.
Predicting the potential distribution of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) infestation in New Zealand, using maximum entropy-based ecological niche modelling.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10493-019-00460-7
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发表时间：
2020-02
影响因子：
2.2
通讯作者：
Pomroy WE
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Raghavan RK;Heath ACG;Lawrence KE;Ganta RR;Peterson AT;Pomroy WE
虽然目前外来到新西兰，潜在的地理分布Amblyomma americanum（L.）孤独的星星滴答声，使用最大熵（MaxEnt）建模。在A的天然范围内校准MaxEnt模型。americanum在北美使用今天的气候条件和博物馆收藏的发生数据。然后，使用在两种温室气体排放情景下模拟的当前和未来气候，即代表性浓度路径（RCP）4.5（低）和RCP 8.5（高），将由此产生的模型预测到新西兰。使用折刀法选择了三组WorldClim生物气候变量，并使用模型特征类函数和正则化乘数值的不同组合在MaxEnt中进行了测试。根据部分受试者操作特征测试、遗漏率和最低赤池信息标准选择首选模型。最终的模型有四个生物气候变量，年平均温度（BIO1），年降水量（BIO12），降水季节性（BIO15）和降水量最干燥的季度（BIO17），预计新西兰的分布大致相似的长角血蜱，新西兰唯一的牲畜蜱，但具有更广泛的预测适用性。根据低RCP和高RCP情景对2050年的气候变化预测，南岛沿山谷的生境适宜性沿着仅略有增加。最后，分析表明，在给定机会和许可证A的情况下，americanum能够并且将会在新西兰成功建立，并且能够为泰勒虫病生物体提供另一种载体。
Although currently exotic to New Zealand, the potential geographic distribution of Amblyomma americanum (L.), the lone star tick, was modelled using maximum entropy (MaxEnt). The MaxEnt model was calibrated across the native range of A. americanum in North America using present-day climatic conditions and occurrence data from museum collections. The resulting model was then projected onto New Zealand using both present-day and future climates modelled under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 (low) and RCP 8.5 (high). Three sets of WorldClim bioclimatic variables were chosen using the jackknife method and tested in MaxEnt using different combinations of model feature class functions and regularization multiplier values. The preferred model was selected based on partial receiver operating characteristic tests, the omission rate and the lowest Akaike information criterion. The final model had four bioclimatic variables, Annual Mean Temperature (BIO1), Annual Precipitation (BIO12), Precipitation Seasonality (BIO15) and Precipitation of Driest Quarter (BIO17), and the projected New Zealand distribution was broadly similar to that of Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann, New Zealand’s only livestock tick, but with a more extensive predicted suitability. The climate change predictions for the year 2050 under both low and high RCP scenarios projected only moderate increases in habitat suitability along the mountain valleys in the South Island. In conclusion, this analysis shows that given the opportunity and license A. americanum could and would successfully establish in New Zealand and could provide another vector for theileriosis organisms.
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影响因子：
1.5
作者：
Burks, CS;Stewart, RL;Lee, RE
通讯作者：
Lee, RE
影响因子：
2.1
作者：
CLARK, DD
通讯作者：
CLARK, DD
影响因子：
9.4
作者：
Chae, JS;Levy, M;Wagner, GG
通讯作者：
Wagner, GG
DOI：
10.1016/j.jaci.2011.02.019
发表时间：
2011-05
期刊：
The Journal of allergy and clinical immunology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Commins SP;James HR;Kelly LA;Pochan SL;Workman LJ;Perzanowski MS;Kocan KM;Fahy JV;Nganga LW;Ronmark E;Cooper PJ;Platts-Mills TA
通讯作者：
Platts-Mills TA
DOI：
10.1002/joc.5086
发表时间：
2017-10-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Fick, Stephen E.;Hijmans, Robert J.
通讯作者：
Hijmans, Robert J.