Different roles of concurring climate and regional land-use changes in past 40 years' insect trends.
Different roles of concurring climate and regional land-use changes in past 40 years' insect trends.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1038/s41467-022-35223-3
复制
发表时间：
2022-12-12
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Knop E
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Neff F;Korner-Nievergelt F;Rey E;Albrecht M;Bollmann K;Cahenzli F;Chittaro Y;Gossner MM;Martínez-Núñez C;Meier ES;Monnerat C;Moretti M;Roth T;Herzog F;Knop E
气候和土地利用变化是昆虫减少的主要驱动力，但它们的综合影响尚未在大的时空尺度上量化。我们分析了390种昆虫（蝴蝶，蚱蜢，蜻蜓）的分布变化（平均占有率），使用了1980年至2020年期间瑞士生物气候梯度的145万条记录。我们没有发现整体下降，但不同物种的分布有很大的增加和减少。对于表现出最强增长（25%分位数）的物种，40年内占用广场的平均比例增加了0.128（95%可信区间：0.123-0.132），相当于平均占用率相对于40年平均占用率平均增加了71.3%（95% CI：67.4-75.1%）。对于下降幅度最大的物种（25%分位数），平均比例下降0.0660（95% CI：0.0613-0.0709），相当于平均占有率平均下降58.3%（95% CI：52.2-64.4%）。下降幅度最大的是窄范围，专业化，冷适应物种。短期分布变化与气候变化和区域土地利用变化有关。此外，气候变化和区域土地使用变化之间的相互作用证实，全球变化的各种驱动因素结合起来，对生物多样性的影响甚至比单独的影响更大。相比之下，40年的分布变化没有明显的区域土地利用的变化，可能反映1980年后当地土地利用的混合变化。然而，气候变暖与40年的变化密切相关，表明它在近几十年来推动温带地区昆虫趋势方面发挥了关键作用。昆虫种群长期趋势的驱动因素通常是从空间换时间替代研究而不是从时间序列数据中推断出来的。在这里，作者调查了瑞士40年来的昆虫趋势，并测试了它们与气候变化、土地利用变化及其相互作用的联系。
Climate and land-use changes are main drivers of insect declines, but their combined effects have not yet been quantified over large spatiotemporal scales. We analysed changes in the distribution (mean occupancy of squares) of 390 insect species (butterflies, grasshoppers, dragonflies), using 1.45 million records from across bioclimatic gradients of Switzerland between 1980 and 2020. We found no overall decline, but strong increases and decreases in the distributions of different species. For species that showed strongest increases (25% quantile), the average proportion of occupied squares increased in 40 years by 0.128 (95% credible interval: 0.123–0.132), which equals an average increase in mean occupancy of 71.3% (95% CI: 67.4–75.1%) relative to their 40-year mean occupancy. For species that showed strongest declines (25% quantile), the average proportion decreased by 0.0660 (95% CI: 0.0613–0.0709), equalling an average decrease in mean occupancy of 58.3% (95% CI: 52.2–64.4%). Decreases were strongest for narrow-ranged, specialised, and cold-adapted species. Short-term distribution changes were associated to both climate changes and regional land-use changes. Moreover, interactive effects between climate and regional land-use changes confirm that the various drivers of global change can have even greater impacts on biodiversity in combination than alone. In contrast, 40-year distribution changes were not clearly related to regional land-use changes, potentially reflecting mixed changes in local land use after 1980. Climate warming however was strongly linked to 40-year changes, indicating its key role in driving insect trends of temperate regions in recent decades. Drivers of long-term trends in insect populations are usually inferred from space-for-time substitution studies rather than from time-series data. Here, the authors investigate insect trends across a 40-year period in Switzerland and test their linkages with climate change, land use change and their interactions.
登录
查看更多内容
揭开昆虫的下降：空间可以替代时间吗？
影响因子：
3.3
作者：
通讯作者：
--
DOI：
10.1111/1365-2664.12256
发表时间：
2014-08
期刊：
The Journal of applied ecology
影响因子：
--
作者：
Fox R;Oliver TH;Harrower C;Parsons MS;Thomas CD;Roy DB
通讯作者：
Roy DB
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Chen, I-Ching;Hill, Jane K.;Thomas, Chris D.
通讯作者：
Thomas, Chris D.
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Beckmann, Bjoern C.;Purse, Bethan V.;Thomas, Chris D.
通讯作者：
Thomas, Chris D.
DOI：
10.1002/joc.5086
发表时间：
2017-10-01
期刊：
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
影响因子：
--
作者：
Fick, Stephen E.;Hijmans, Robert J.
通讯作者：
Hijmans, Robert J.