Potential climate-driven changes to seabird demography: implications for assessments of marine renewable energy development
Potential climate-driven changes to seabird demography: implications for assessments of marine renewable energy development
复制标题
气候驱动的海鸟人口统计的潜在变化：对海洋可再生能源开发评估的影响
DOI：
10.3354/meps14045
复制
发表时间：
2022
影响因子：
2.5
通讯作者：
F. Daunt
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Searle;A. Butler;J. Waggitt;Pgh Evans;L. Quinn;M. Bogdanova;TJ Evans;Jez Braithwaite;F. Daunt
：欧洲制定了雄心勃勃的绿色能源目标，海上可再生能源开发(ORD)将对此做出重大贡献。法律要求各国政府可持续地提供ORD；然而，它们可能会对野生动物产生有害影响，特别是那些已经因气候变化而出现下降的野生动物。人口生存能力分析(PVA)是在ORD评估中预测人口变化的标准方法，但PVA目前不考虑气候影响。我们量化了气候对在北海繁殖的8种英国海鸟繁殖成功的影响。我们评估了海鸟通过扩大栖息地周围的觅食范围来获得更广泛的资源，从而缓解气候驱动的繁殖成功变化的潜力。我们在5个物种中证明了繁殖成功和气候之间的密切联系。在其中4个物种中，未来的气候预测表明，与当前的繁殖成功率相比，繁殖成功率大幅下降。据预测，在未来的气候条件下，只有一个物种会增加繁殖成功率。在所有5个物种中，物种通过扩大觅食范围以获得更合适的未来气候条件来增加繁殖成功率的机会有限。气候变化将对北海海鸟繁殖的未来成功产生重大影响，北海地区正在进行广泛和快速的近海可再生能源开发。我们推荐3种方法来将气候驱动的变化对海鸟繁殖的成功纳入ORD评估：开发预测的气候驱动的栖息地使用模型来估计Ord-野生动物的相互作用；提供新的ORD评估框架，其中包括对气候驱动的栖息地使用和野生动物种群的人口统计的动态预测；以及在实施补偿措施时考虑气候驱动的变化。
: Europe has set ambitious green energy targets, to which offshore renewable developments (ORDs) will make a significant contribution. Governments are legally required to deliver ORDs sustainably; however, they may have detrimental impacts on wildlife, especially those already experiencing declines due to climate change. Population viability analysis (PVA) is the standard method for forecasting population change in ORD assessments, but PVAs do not currently account for climate effects. We quantified climate effects on seabird breeding success for 8 UK species breeding in the North Sea. We assessed the potential for seabirds to mitigate climate-driven changes in breeding success by accessing wider resources through increased foraging ranges around colonies. We demonstrate strong links between breeding success and climate in 5 species. In 4 of these species, future climate projections indicated large declines in breeding success relative to current rates. Only one species was predicted to increase breeding success under future climate. In all 5 species, there was limited opportunity for species to increase breeding success by expanding foraging ranges to access more suitable future climatic conditions. Climate change will have significant ramifications for future breeding success of seabirds breeding in the North Sea, an area undergoing extensive and rapid offshore renewable energy development. We recommend 3 methods for including climate-driven changes to seabird breeding success within ORD assessments: development of predictive climate-driven habitat use models to estimate ORD-wildlife interactions; delivery of a new ORD assessment framework that includes dynamic predictions of climate-driven habitat use and demography of wildlife populations; and consideration of climate-driven changes in the implementation of compensatory measures.
气候变化对海鸟的影响，与英国周围的沿海和海洋环境相关
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2020
期刊：
MCCIP Science Review
影响因子：
--
作者：
Mitchell PI
通讯作者：
Mitchell PI
影响因子：
30.7
作者：
Johnston, Alison;Ausden, Malcolm;Pearce-Higgins, JamesW.
通讯作者：
Pearce-Higgins, JamesW.
影响因子：
6.6
作者：
Nakagawa, Shinichi;Schielzeth, Holger
通讯作者：
Schielzeth, Holger