Assessing the Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade
Assessing the Impact of Trade Agreements on Trade
复制标题
评估贸易协定对贸易的影响
DOI：
10.1177/002795011623800113
复制
发表时间：
2016
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Ebell M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ebell M
在咨询公投结果离开欧盟后，英国面临的关键问题之一是其与欧盟关系的确切性质。一个极端是继续加入欧洲经济区，包括加入单一市场。其他选择是完全不与欧盟签订自由贸易协定（FTA），或者签订一个不太全面的FTA，即单一市场成员资格。本文比较了欧洲经济区成员国和不太全面的自由贸易协定在商品和服务贸易方面的能力。我们使用经验重力模型方法和来自42个国家的最新可用数据来研究这个问题。我们使用最近开发的计量经济学方法来处理零贸易流量的观测和与内消相关的问题。主要结论是，虽然加入欧洲经济区与双边服务贸易流量的大幅增长和统计显著增长有关，但加入不太全面的自由贸易协定与双边服务贸易的任何显著增长无关。就商品而言，欧洲经济区成员国与较不全面的自由贸易协定相比，双边贸易流量更大。这些结果表明，在退出欧盟时，可能难以通过与欧盟或第三国签订较浅的自由贸易协定来弥补与欧盟失去的贸易流量。
One of the key issues facing the UK in the wake of the advisory referendum result to leave the European Union is the precise nature of its relationship with the European Union. At one extreme would be continued membership in the European Economic Area, including membership in the single market. Other options would be either no free trade agreement (FTA) with the EU at all or a less comprehensive FTA which stops short of single market membership. This paper compares the ability of EEA membership and less comprehensive FTAs to generate trade in goods and services. We investigate this question using empirical gravity model methodology and the most recent available data from 42 countries. We use recently developed econometric methods to deal with observations of zero trade flows and issues connected with endogeneity. The main finding is that while EEA membership is associated with substantial and statistically significant increases in bilateral services trade flows, membership in less comprehensive FTAs is not associated with any significant increase in bilateral services trade. For goods, EEA membership is associated with larger bilateral trade flows than are less comprehensive FTAs. These results suggest that it might be difficult to replace, on an exit from a European Union, lost trade flows with the EU by means of shallower FTAs with the EU or with third countries.
影响因子：
1.3
作者：
Miroudot, Sebastien;Sauvage, Jehan;Shepherd, Ben
通讯作者：
Shepherd, Ben
服务贸易、监管和区域一体化：来自部门数据的证据
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2013
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Erik van der Marel;Ben Shepherd
通讯作者：
Ben Shepherd