Stream flow variability and drought severity in the Songhua River Basin, Northeast China
Stream flow variability and drought severity in the Songhua River Basin, Northeast China
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东北松花江流域径流变化与干旱严重程度
DOI：
10.1007/s00477-017-1463-3
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发表时间：
2018-05
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Cui Song
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Faiz Muhammad Abrar;Liu Dong;Fu Qiang;Uzair Muhammad;Khan Muhammad Imran;Baig Faisal;Li Tianxiao;Cui Song
水流大小的微小变化可以对水资源的开发产生重大影响。松花江流域位于中国东北地区，是中国重要的粮食商品盆地。最近的研究发现，河流流量逐渐减少，这对该地区的水资源构成严重威胁。因此，有必要评估水流量变化，预测水流量和干旱的未来，以制定农业灌溉的综合规划。利用水资源综合评价与规划（WEAP）工具，结合降水观测资料，以及亚洲降水-高分辨率观测资料综合水资源评价（APHRODITE’s Water Resources）降水产品，对SRB的月流量进行了模拟，探讨了气候对径流的影响。采用Nash-Sutcliffe系数（NSC）评价WEAP的效率。在校准期间，利用观测和APHRODITE降水数据获得的NSC分别为0.90和0.67。结果表明，WEAP可以有效地应用于SRB。该模型的应用表明，在未来气候变化情景下，到21世纪末，河流流量将出现最大降幅，降幅将达到24%。干旱指数（标准化干旱指数和正常指数百分比）表明，2059年、2060年和2085年发生严重到极端干旱事件的概率最高，其余时间段整个研究区可能发生轻度到中度干旱事件。各情景下2011-2099年的干旱持续时间、严重程度和强度[(A1B: 12,−1.55,−0.12),(A2: 12,−1.41,−0.09),(max。湿润和温暖条件：12，- 1.37,- 0.11)和(min。湿润和温暖条件：分别为12，−1.69,−0.19)]。
A slight variation in the magnitude of stream flow can have a substantial influence on the development of water resources. The Songhua River Basin (SRB) serves as a major grain commodity basin and is located in the northeastern region of China. Recent studies have identified a gradual decrease in stream flows, which presents a serious risk to water resources of the region. It is therefore necessary to assess the variation in stream flow and to predict the future of stream flows and droughts to make a comprehensive plan for agricultural irrigation. The simulation of monthly stream flows and the investigation of the influence of climate on the stream flow in the SRB were performed by utilizing the Integrated Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool coupled with observed precipitation data, as well as the Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration towards Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE’s Water Resources) precipitation product. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSC) was used to assess the WEAP efficiency. During the time of calibration, NSC was obtained as 0.90 and 0.67 using observed and APHRODITE precipitation data, respectively. The results indicate that WEAP can be used effectively in the SRB. The application of the model suggested a maximum decline in stream flow, reaching 24% until the end of 21st century under future climate change scenarios. The drought indices (standardized drought index and percent of normal index) demonstrated that chances of severe to extreme drought events are highest in 2059, 2060 and 2085, while in the remaining time period mild to moderate drought events may occur in the entire study area. The drought duration, severity and intensity for the period of 2011–2099 under all scenarios, [(A1B: 12, − 1.55, − 0.12), (A2: 12, − 1.41, − 0.09), (max. wetting and warming conditions: 12, − 1.37, − 0.11) and (min. wetting and warming conditions: 12, − 1.69, − 0.19)], respectively.
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