Concurrent sexual partnerships and primary HIV infection: a critical interaction.
Concurrent sexual partnerships and primary HIV infection: a critical interaction.
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DOI：
10.1007/s10461-010-9787-8
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发表时间：
2011-05
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Garnett, Geoffrey P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Eaton, Jeffrey W.;Hallett, Timothy B.;Garnett, Geoffrey P.
长期同时发生的性伙伴关系和艾滋病毒感染早期的高传染性被认为是艾滋病毒在撒哈拉以南非洲一般人群中广泛传播的关键驱动因素，但这从未得到科学调查。我们使用数学模型来模拟艾滋病毒在不同并发数量的性网络中的传播。这些模型表明，如果HIV传染性在感染期间是恒定的，那么与传染性在感染的三个阶段变化并在头几个月具有高传染性相比，并发性的数量对HIV传播的影响要小得多。初次感染期间的传播比例对并发性的数量很敏感，在该模型中，在并发性增加的流行病中，估计传播比例在16%至28%之间。流行病传播对并发数量的敏感性高于不包括原发性艾滋病毒感染的模型所预测的敏感性。
The combination of long-term concurrent sexual partnerships and high infectiousness early in HIV infection has been suggested as a key driver of the extensive spread of HIV in general populations in sub-Saharan Africa, but this has never been scientifically investigated. We use a mathematical model to simulate HIV spreading on sexual networks with different amounts of concurrency. The models show that if HIV infectiousness is constant over the duration of infection, the amount of concurrency has much less influence on HIV spread compared to when infectiousness varies over three stages of infection with high infectiousness in the first months. The proportion of transmissions during primary infection is sensitive to the amount of concurrency and, in this model, is estimated to be between 16 and 28% in spreading epidemics with increasing concurrency. The sensitivity of epidemic spread to the amount of concurrency is greater than predicted by models that do not include primary HIV infection.
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