Mosquito-borne transmission in urban landscapes: the missing link between vector abundance and human density.
Mosquito-borne transmission in urban landscapes: the missing link between vector abundance and human density.
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DOI：
10.1098/rspb.2018.0826
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发表时间：
2018-08-15
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Pascual M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Romeo-Aznar V;Paul R;Telle O;Pascual M
随着城市化的不断升级，城市景观的环境、人口和社会经济异质性对媒介传播感染传播的数学模型提出了挑战。经典的向量-人类耦合模型通常假设蚊子丰度与人口密度无关或成正比，这意味着感染力或人均感染率随宿主数量的增加而下降。我们通过不同的招募函数引入宿主和载体密度之间的明确依赖性来质疑这些假设，我们在修改后的模型公式中检查其动态后果。展示了感染力的对比模式，尤其包括当招募随着人口密度足够快地增长时的增长趋势。这些模式与温度季节性的相互作用可能会导致流行时间、相对峰值大小和持续时间的显着差异。这些提出的依赖性解释了在德里市观察到的经验登革热风险模式，该市的社会经济地位对人类和蚊子密度都有影响。这些观察到的风险趋势与宿主密度的关系与当前的标准模型不一致。需要更好地了解媒介招募和宿主密度之间的联系，以解决城市景观中蚊子传播感染的种群动态。
With escalating urbanization, the environmental, demographic, and socio-economic heterogeneity of urban landscapes poses a challenge to mathematical models for the transmission of vector-borne infections. Classical coupled vector–human models typically assume that mosquito abundance is either independent from, or proportional to, human population density, implying a decreasing force of infection, or per capita infection rate with host number. We question these assumptions by introducing an explicit dependence between host and vector densities through different recruitment functions, whose dynamical consequences we examine in a modified model formulation. Contrasting patterns in the force of infection are demonstrated, including in particular increasing trends when recruitment grows sufficiently fast with human density. Interaction of these patterns with seasonality in temperature can give rise to pronounced differences in timing, relative peak sizes, and duration of epidemics. These proposed dependencies explain empirical dengue risk patterns observed in the city of Delhi where socio-economic status has an impact on both human and mosquito densities. These observed risk trends with host density are inconsistent with current standard models. A better understanding of the connection between vector recruitment and host density is needed to address the population dynamics of mosquito-transmitted infections in urban landscapes.
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影响因子：
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期刊：
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