Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue epidemics, southern Vietnam.
Spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue epidemics, southern Vietnam.
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DOI：
10.3201/eid1906.121323
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发表时间：
2013-06
影响因子：
11.8
通讯作者：
Anders KL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cuong HQ;Vu NT;Cazelles B;Boni MF;Thai KT;Rabaa MA;Quang LC;Simmons CP;Huu TN;Anders KL
对登革病毒传播异质性的进一步了解可能会提供对生物和生态驱动因素的见解，并有助于预测未来登革流行的规模，时间和地点。为了调查越南胡志明市城市和邻近农村省份的登革热动态，我们分析了越南南部10年的月度登革热监测数据。胡志明市的登革热人均发病率低于大多数农村省份;胡志明市的年度流行比其他地方晚1-3个月。与偏远地区相比，附近地区年度流行的时间和规模显着相关，这表明当地的生物和生态驱动因素在50-100公里的范围内运作。登革热发病率在旱季占63%的流行程度的变化。这些发现可以帮助确定病媒控制干预措施的目标和登革热疫苗实施的规划。
An improved understanding of heterogeneities in dengue virus transmission might provide insights into biological and ecologic drivers and facilitate predictions of the magnitude, timing, and location of future dengue epidemics. To investigate dengue dynamics in urban Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring rural provinces in Vietnam, we analyzed a 10-year monthly time series of dengue surveillance data from southern Vietnam. The per capita incidence of dengue was lower in Ho Chi Minh City than in most rural provinces; annual epidemics occurred 1–3 months later in Ho Chi Minh City than elsewhere. The timing and the magnitude of annual epidemics were significantly more correlated in nearby districts than in remote districts, suggesting that local biological and ecologic drivers operate at a scale of 50–100 km. Dengue incidence during the dry season accounted for 63% of variability in epidemic magnitude. These findings can aid the targeting of vector-control interventions and the planning for dengue vaccine implementation.
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影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Cazelles B;Chavez M;McMichael AJ;Hales S
通讯作者：
Hales S
影响因子：
--
作者：
Rogers, D. J.;Wilson, A. J.;Hay, S. I.;Graham, A. J.
通讯作者：
Graham, A. J.
影响因子：
15.8
作者：
Cummings DA;Iamsirithaworn S;Lessler JT;McDermott A;Prasanthong R;Nisalak A;Jarman RG;Burke DS;Gibbons RV
通讯作者：
Gibbons RV
影响因子：
64.8
作者：
Cummings, DAT;Irizarry, RA;Burke, DS
通讯作者：
Burke, DS
影响因子：
4.8
作者：
Cazelles, B;Stone, L
通讯作者：
Stone, L