The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: Epidemiology and impact of interventions.
The COVID-19 outbreak in Sichuan, China: Epidemiology and impact of interventions.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008467
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发表时间：
2020-12
影响因子：
4.3
通讯作者：
Ajelli M
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Liu QH;Bento AI;Yang K;Zhang H;Yang X;Merler S;Vespignani A;Lv J;Yu H;Zhang W;Zhou T;Ajelli M
2020 年 1 月，中国四川省发现了 COVID-19 疫情。六周后，疫情得到成功遏制。这项工作的目的是描述四川暴发的流行病学特征，并评估干预措施对限制 SARS-CoV-2 传播的影响。我们分析了2020年1月21日至3月16日期间该省报告的所有实验室确诊病例的患者记录。为了估计基本和每日繁殖数，我们使用了贝叶斯框架。此外，我们还估计了通过实施控制策略避免的病例数量。此次疫情共确诊539例，持续时间不到两个月，2月27日后未发现进一步本地传播。本地病例中位年龄比输入病例大8岁。我们估计 R0 为 2.4（95% CI：1.6-3.7）。疫情自我持续了约三周，在四川当局宣布突发公共卫生事件三天后降至疫情阈值以下。我们的研究结果表明，如果四周后采取控制措施，疫情可能会持续更长的时间 49 天（95% CI：31-68 天），导致新增病例 9,216 例（95% CI：1,317-25,545）。自武汉出现以来，SARS-CoV-2 迅速开始在中国传播。 2020 年 1 月 21 日，中国四川省发现首例 COVID-19 病例，并导致当地爆发疫情。不到两个月后，疫情于 2020 年 3 月 4 日结束，最后报告病例。在这项研究中，我们分析了四川报告的所有实验室确诊病例的患者记录，以提供此次疫情的流行病学特征，估计 SARS-CoV-2 传播潜力，并评估所采取干预措施的影响。我们估计，在疫情爆发的最初指数增长阶段，每个 COVID-19 病例平均产生 2.4 个继发病例（95% CI：1.6-3.7）。此外，我们估计，如果四川在四周后实施严格的遏制措施，疫情将导致新增病例 9,216 例（95% CI：1,317-25,545）。我们的研究结果表明，快速应对 COVID-19 疫情的关键作用以及适当的监测和监测系统的重要性。
In January 2020, a COVID-19 outbreak was detected in Sichuan Province of China. Six weeks later, the outbreak was successfully contained. The aim of this work is to characterize the epidemiology of the Sichuan outbreak and estimate the impact of interventions in limiting SARS-CoV-2 transmission. We analyzed patient records for all laboratory-confirmed cases reported in the province for the period of January 21 to March 16, 2020. To estimate the basic and daily reproduction numbers, we used a Bayesian framework. In addition, we estimated the number of cases averted by the implemented control strategies. The outbreak resulted in 539 confirmed cases, lasted less than two months, and no further local transmission was detected after February 27. The median age of local cases was 8 years older than that of imported cases. We estimated R0 at 2.4 (95% CI: 1.6–3.7). The epidemic was self-sustained for about 3 weeks before going below the epidemic threshold 3 days after the declaration of a public health emergency by Sichuan authorities. Our findings indicate that, were the control measures be adopted four weeks later, the epidemic could have lasted 49 days longer (95% CI: 31–68 days), causing 9,216 more cases (95% CI: 1,317–25,545). Since its emergence in Wuhan, SARS-CoV-2 rapidly started its spread across China. On January 21, 2020 the first COVID-19 case was detected in the Sichuan Province of China and led to an outbreak of local transmission. Less than two months later, the outbreak was over with the last reported case on March 4, 2020. In this study, we analyzed patient records for all laboratory-confirmed cases reported in Sichuan to provide an epidemiological characterization of the outbreak, to estimate SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential, and to assess the impact of the adopted interventions. We estimated that, during the initial exponential growth phase of the outbreak, each COVID-19 case has generated a mean of 2.4 secondary cases (95% CI: 1.6–3.7). Moreover, we estimated that, were the Sichuan strict containment measures implemented four weeks later, the outbreak would have caused 9,216 more cases (95% CI: 1,317–25,545). Our findings suggest the key role of a quick response to COVID-19 outbreaks and the importance of an adequate surveillance and monitoring system.
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影响因子：
158.5
作者：
Li, Qun;Guan, Xuhua;Feng, Zijian
通讯作者：
Feng, Zijian
DOI：
10.1056/nejmoa1411100
发表时间：
2014-10-16
期刊：
The New England journal of medicine
影响因子：
--
作者：
WHO Ebola Response Team;Aylward B;Barboza P;Bawo L;Bertherat E;Bilivogui P;Blake I;Brennan R;Briand S;Chakauya JM;Chitala K;Conteh RM;Cori A;Croisier A;Dangou JM;Diallo B;Donnelly CA;Dye C;Eckmanns T;Ferguson NM;Formenty P;Fuhrer C;Fukuda K;Garske T;Gasasira A;Gbanyan S;Graaff P;Heleze E;Jambai A;Jombart T;Kasolo F;Kadiobo AM;Keita S;Kertesz D;Koné M;Lane C;Markoff J;Massaquoi M;Mills H;Mulba JM;Musa E;Myhre J;Nasidi A;Nilles E;Nouvellet P;Nshimirimana D;Nuttall I;Nyenswah T;Olu O;Pendergast S;Perea W;Polonsky J;Riley S;Ronveaux O;Sakoba K;Santhana Gopala Krishnan R;Senga M;Shuaib F;Van Kerkhove MD;Vaz R;Wijekoon Kannangarage N;Yoti Z
通讯作者：
Yoti Z
DOI：
10.3138/jammi-2020-0030
发表时间：
2020-12-01
期刊：
Journal of the Association of Medical Microbiology and Infectious Disease Canada = Journal officiel de l'Association pour la microbiologie medicale et l'infectiologie Canada
影响因子：
--
作者：
Byambasuren, Oyungerel;Cardona, Magnolia;Glasziou, Paul
通讯作者：
Glasziou, Paul
影响因子：
56.3
作者：
Badr, Hamada S.;Du, Hongru;Gardner, Lauren M.
通讯作者：
Gardner, Lauren M.
影响因子：
56.9
作者：
Chinazzi, Matteo;Davis, Jessica T.;Vespignani, Alessandro
通讯作者：
Vespignani, Alessandro