Threat of wheat blast to South Asia's food security: An ex-ante analysis.
Threat of wheat blast to South Asia's food security: An ex-ante analysis.
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DOI：
10.1371/journal.pone.0197555
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
Erenstein O
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mottaleb KA;Singh PK;Sonder K;Kruseman G;Tiwari TP;Barma NCD;Malaker PK;Braun HJ;Erenstein O
过去几十年来，地球仪各地出现了新的生物压力，威胁着食品安全和保障。2016年，科学家证实了南亚孟加拉国存在毁灭性的小麦稻瘟病，这是南美洲以外的第一次发生。受爆炸严重影响的麦田的粮食产量被摧毁。这对人口稠密地区的粮食安全构成严重威胁，该地区有数百万贫困居民，小麦是主要的主食作物，人均小麦消费量一直在增加。作为一项事前影响评估，这项研究审查了孟加拉国，印度和巴基斯坦的潜在小麦瘟病情景。根据2016年孟加拉国首次发现该疾病的震中的农业气候条件，该研究确定了印度，巴基斯坦和孟加拉国相应的脆弱地区，面积达700万公顷。假设稻瘟病导致小麦产量损失为5-10%的保守情景，本研究估计抽样国家每年的潜在小麦损失为89 - 177万吨，相当于1.32 - 2.64亿美元。这种损失进一步威胁到本已岌岌可危的国家粮食安全，给小麦进口和小麦价格带来压力。这项研究呼吁采取行动，解决南亚真实的小麦瘟病威胁。
New biotic stresses have emerged around the globe over the last decades threatening food safety and security. In 2016, scientists confirmed the presence of the devastating wheat-blast disease in Bangladesh, South Asia–its first occurrence outside South America. Severely blast-affected wheat fields had their grain yield wiped out. This poses a severe threat to food security in a densely-populated region with millions of poor inhabitants where wheat is a major staple crop and per capita wheat consumption has been increasing. As an ex ante impact assessment, this study examined potential wheat-blast scenarios in Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. Based on the agro-climatic conditions in the epicenter, where the disease was first identified in Bangladesh in 2016, this study identified the correspondingly vulnerable areas in India, Pakistan and Bangladesh amounting to 7 million ha. Assuming a conservative scenario of 5–10% for blast-induced wheat production loss, this study estimated the annual potential wheat loss across the sampled countries to be 0.89–1.77 million tons, equivalent to USD 132–264 million. Such losses further threaten an already-precarious national food security, putting pressure on wheat imports and wheat prices. The study is a call for action to tackle the real wheat-blast threat in South Asia.
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