Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology.
Global climate-change trends detected in indicators of ocean ecology.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41586-023-06321-z
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发表时间：
2023-07
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Henson, Stephanie
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Cael, B. B.;Bisson, Kelsey;Boss, Emmanuel;Dutkiewicz, Stephanie;Henson, Stephanie
强烈的自然变异性被认为掩盖了地球观测卫星上浮游植物种群可能的气候变化驱动趋势。据认为，需要30多年的连续数据才能发现气候变化驱动的趋势。在这里，我们表明，气候变化的趋势出现更迅速的海洋颜色（遥感反射率，Rrs），因为Rrs是多变量和一些波段具有较低的年际变化。我们分析了Aqua卫星上的中分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）的20年Rrs时间序列，发现全球56%的表层海洋（主要是赤道40°）的Rrs有显著的趋势。Rrs中的气候变化信号在20年后出现在覆盖海洋相似部分的相似区域中，这表明我们观察到的趋势表明海洋颜色的变化-以及延伸，在表面海洋生态系统中-由气候变化驱动。总体而言，低纬度海洋在过去20年中变得更加绿色。对2002年7月至2022年6月卫星数据的分析表明，海洋颜色或遥感反射率在此期间发生了重大变化，这一趋势可能是由气候变化驱动的。
Strong natural variability has been thought to mask possible climate-change-driven trends in phytoplankton populations from Earth-observing satellites. More than 30 years of continuous data were thought to be needed to detect a trend driven by climate change. Here we show that climate-change trends emerge more rapidly in ocean colour (remote-sensing reflectance, Rrs), because Rrs is multivariate and some wavebands have low interannual variability. We analyse a 20-year Rrs time series from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard the Aqua satellite, and find significant trends in Rrs for 56% of the global surface ocean, mainly equatorward of 40°. The climate-change signal in Rrs emerges after 20 years in similar regions covering a similar fraction of the ocean in a state-of-the-art ecosystem model, which suggests that our observed trends indicate shifts in ocean colour—and, by extension, in surface-ocean ecosystems—that are driven by climate change. On the whole, low-latitude oceans have become greener in the past 20 years. An analysis of satellite data from July 2002–June 2022 shows that ocean colour, or remote-sensing reflectance, changed significantly during this period, and that this trend is likely to be driven by climate change.
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