Impacts of micromobility on car displacement with evidence from a natural experiment and geofencing policy

Impacts of micromobility on car displacement with evidence from a natural experiment and geofencing policy
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微移动对汽车位移的影响,来自自然实验和地理围栏政策的证据

DOI:
10.1038/s41560-022-01135-1
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发表时间:
2022
期刊:
影响因子:
56.7
通讯作者:
Horner, Savannah J.
Horner, Savannah J.
中科院分区:
材料科学1区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Asensio, Omar Isaac;Apablaza, Camila Z.;Lawson, M. Cade;Chen, Edward W.;Horner, Savannah J.

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微型移动性,如电动滑板车和电动自行车-到2030年全球市场估计将达到3000亿美元-将加快电气化努力,并从根本上改变城市交通模式。然而,微机动性的采用对交通拥堵和可持续性的影响尚不清楚。在这里,我们利用移动地理围栏和高分辨率数据的进步来研究政策干预的影响,该政策出人意料地禁止在夜间远程关闭滑板车,以保证近乎完美的合规。我们测试习惯不连续理论,为微机动性用户是否用滑板车取代汽车提供统计识别。在美国一个主要城市进行的一项自然实验表明,日常通勤的旅行时间增加了9-11%,大型活动的旅行时间增加了37%。鉴于全球对微移动设备使用的限制越来越受欢迎,城市应该会看到旨在促进公共安全的微移动限制与与拥堵加剧相关的排放增加之间的权衡。
Micromobility, such as electric scooters and electric bikes—an estimated US$300 billion global market by 2030—will accelerate electrification efforts and fundamentally change urban mobility patterns. However, the impacts of micromobility adoption on traffic congestion and sustainability remain unclear. Here we leverage advances in mobile geofencing and high-resolution data to study the effects of a policy intervention, which unexpectedly banned the use of scooters during evening hours with remote shutdown, guaranteeing near perfect compliance. We test theories of habit discontinuity to provide statistical identification for whether micromobility users substitute scooters for cars. Evidence from a natural experiment in a major US city shows increases in travel time of 9–11% for daily commuting and 37% for large events. Given the growing popularity of restrictions on the use of micromobility devices globally, cities should expect to see trade-offs between micromobility restrictions designed to promote public safety and increased emissions associated with heightened congestion.
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