Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario.
Observationally-constrained projections of an ice-free Arctic even under a low emission scenario.
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-023-38511-8
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发表时间：
2023-06-06
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Malinina, Elizaveta
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kim, Yeon-Hee;Min, Seung-Ki;Gillett, Nathan P.;Notz, Dirk;Malinina, Elizaveta
气专委第六次评估报告根据最新一代耦合模型相互比较项目第六阶段（CMIP 6）模型的模拟评估，预计在中等和高温室气体排放情景下，北极在本世纪中叶9月平均几乎无冰，但在低排放情景下则不然。在这里，我们表明，使用归因分析方法，温室气体增加对北极海冰面积的主要影响是检测在三个观测数据集在一年中的所有月份，但平均低估了CMIP6模型。通过缩放模型的海冰对温室气体的响应，以最好地匹配在不完美的模型测试中验证的方法中观察到的趋势，我们在所有考虑的情况下预测9月份的无冰北极。这些结果强调了温室气体排放对北极的深远影响，并表明了在不久的将来规划和适应季节性无冰北极的重要性。在所有月份都可以检测到人为温室气体增加对北极海冰面积的主要影响。通过调整气候模型的海冰响应，以最佳匹配观察到的趋势，预计在所有情景下，9月北极都将无冰。
The sixth assessment report of the IPCC assessed that the Arctic is projected to be on average practically ice-free in September near mid-century under intermediate and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, though not under low emissions scenarios, based on simulations from the latest generation Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. Here we show, using an attribution analysis approach, that a dominant influence of greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in three observational datasets in all months of the year, but is on average underestimated by CMIP6 models. By scaling models’ sea ice response to greenhouse gases to best match the observed trend in an approach validated in an imperfect model test, we project an ice-free Arctic in September under all scenarios considered. These results emphasize the profound impacts of greenhouse gas emissions on the Arctic, and demonstrate the importance of planning for and adapting to a seasonally ice-free Arctic in the near future. A dominant influence of anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases on Arctic sea ice area is detectable in all months. By scaling climate models’ sea ice response to best match observed trends, an ice-free Arctic in September is projected under all scenarios.
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影响因子：
4.6
作者：
Allen, MR;Stott, PA
通讯作者：
Stott, PA
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