Predicting quantity and quality of life with the Future Elderly Model.
Predicting quantity and quality of life with the Future Elderly Model.
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DOI：
10.1002/hec.4169
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发表时间：
2021-11
期刊：
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Lakdawalla DN
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Ermini Leaf D;Tysinger B;Goldman DP;Lakdawalla DN
未来老年人模型（FEM）是一个微观模拟模型，旨在预测健康状况，寿命和各种经济结果。与传统的精算模型相比，微观模拟模型为政策预测提供了更大的机会和更丰富的细节，但它们通常建立在较小的数据样本上，这可能会降低预测的准确性。我们执行验证分析的FEM的死亡率和生活质量的预测，使用的FEM版本估计完全从健康和退休研究的早期波的数据。首先，我们将FEM死亡率和寿命预测与同期观察到的实际死亡率和寿命经验进行比较。我们还比较了有限元结果的精算预测的死亡率和寿命在同一时间。我们发现，有限元预测一般符合观察到的死亡率和密切匹配的寿命。然后，我们评估FEM在预测生活质量和纵向结果方面的表现，这两个特征是传统精算模型所缺少的。我们的分析表明，有限元执行至少以及精算预测的死亡率，同时提供政策模拟功能，不提供精算模型。
The Future Elderly Model (FEM) is a microsimulation model designed to forecast health status, longevity, and a variety of economic outcomes. Compared to traditional actuarial models, microsimulation models provide greater opportunities for policy forecasting and richer detail, but they typically build upon smaller samples of data that may mitigate forecasting accuracy. We perform validation analyses of the FEM’s mortality and quality of life forecasts using a version of the FEM estimated exclusively on early waves of data from the Health and Retirement Study. First, we compare FEM mortality and longevity projections to the actual mortality and longevity experience observed over the same period of time. We also compare the FEM results to actuarial forecasts of mortality and longevity during the same time. We find that FEM projections are generally in line with observed mortality rates and closely match longevity. Then, we assess the FEM’s performance at predicting quality of life and longitudinal outcomes, two features missing from traditional actuarial models. Our analysis suggests the FEM performs at least as well as actuarial forecasts of mortality, while providing policy simulation features that are not available in actuarial models.
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影响因子：
1.5
作者：
MACKINNON, JG;MAGEE, L
通讯作者：
MAGEE, L
影响因子：
3.5
作者：
Garber, AM;Phelps, CE
通讯作者：
Phelps, CE
影响因子：
3.7
作者：
Agus DB;Gaudette É;Goldman DP;Messali A
通讯作者：
Messali A
DOI：
10.1377/hlthaff.2013.0052
发表时间：
2013-10
期刊：
Health affairs (Project Hope)
影响因子：
--
作者：
Goldman DP;Cutler D;Rowe JW;Michaud PC;Sullivan J;Peneva D;Olshansky SJ
通讯作者：
Olshansky SJ
影响因子：
9.7
作者：
Lakdawalla, Darius N.;Goldman, Dana P.;Gutierrez, Italo
通讯作者：
Gutierrez, Italo